Estimation of launch vehicle stage fallout zone

The estimation of a launch vehicle fallback safety zone is a very important problem in space application because the consequence of a mistake in the estimation can be dramatic for the populations. This test case consists in estimating the probability that the distance between the estimated launcher stage fallback position and the predicted one is greater than a given threshold. This probability is of course rare and can hardly be estimated with CMC. We analyze on this test case the performances of the different rare event probability estimation methods described in this book.