Evaluating the Maturity of Urban Emergency Planning Based on Structure Equation Modeling

[Abstract] Emergency planning has drawn much attention from the government, so an effective emergency plan is critically important. It also poses a challenge to authorities about how to systematically evaluate the validity of the emergency plan after it has been designed. This paper presents a structural equation model to evaluate the maturity of emergency planning, which includes the estimate of the relations between the higher order latent variable maturity and seven latent variables (including risk assessment, resources, training and plan validation, inform and warn, information sharing, co-operation and joint working, service continuity management, etc.). The model is based on the Generalized Least Square to Maximum Likelihood estimation procedure and can be modified through the Modification Indices to ensure the validity of the model. Then, the maturity can be calculated to evaluate the validity of the planning, and any weaknesses can be found through parameter estimates, and resources can be balanced. [Keywords] Emergency management; maturity; structural equation modeling; urban disaster; urban emergency planning Introduction and Background The frequency of human-induced disasters, natural disasters, and complex disasters is increasing, and their incidence rate is expanding, which restricts the development of a city: for example, Harbin's water crisis, SARS crisis, Miyun's tourist event, Weihai's snow disaster, etc. The urban disaster poses a challenge to urban emergency management. Therefore, carrying out effective urban emergency planning plays an important role in reducing the losses from the disaster and stabilizing the society, such as the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. Emergency planning has drawn much attention from the government, so effective emergency planning becomes critical important. It also poses a challenge to the authorities about how to systematically evaluate the validity of the emergency plan after it was designed. Literature review Currently, urban disaster is one of the hottest topics to which many scholars pay much attention, and there are many studies about it. The research about urban emergency management has concentrated on the following: optimal location for the emergency system and the material dispatching system (He et al., 2005, Linet et al., 2004, Berman et al., 2003, Tavakoli et al., 2004 & Kuwatai et al., 2004); the theory on emergency decision making and its supportive computer technique (Atoji, 2004, HernaAndeza et al., 2001); public relations in emergency management (HernaAndeza et al., 2001 & Helbing, 2003); and emergency training (Crichton et al., 2001) and so on. There are even some researchers who have probed urban emergency planning, but up to now, all those are limited to the design of the emergency plan. Currently, the focus has shifted from response and recovery to sustainable hazard mitigation and the integration of emergency management planning and community planning, which emphasizes the participation of the public (Pearce, 2003). Some successful execution of emergency planning is studied, and some experience can be obtained. For example, in the successful planning by U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) , the division between the three components (hazard assessment, warning guidance, and mitigation) softened as NTHMP scientists and emergency managers worked together to develop the best possible products for the users given the best available science, technology, and planning methods using available funds (Jonientz-Trisler et al., 2005 & Bernard 2005). Logistics planning in emergency situations plays an important role in emergency planning, and a macro-level logistics planning model in emergencies is proposed to be a component of a Logistics Decision Support System, and a heterogeneous fleet that incorporates multiple transportation modes is studied (Ozdamar et al., 2004 & Ziliaskopoulos, 2000). …