Effects of management decisions on genetic evaluation of simulated calving records using random regression.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of various data structures on the genetic evaluation for the binary phenotype of reproductive success. The data were simulated based on an existing pedigree and an underlying fertility phenotype with a heritability of 0.10. A data set of complete observations was generated for all cows. This data set was then modified mimicking the culling of cows when they first failed to reproduce, cows having a missing observation at either their second or fifth opportunity to reproduce as if they had been selected as donors for embryo transfer, and censoring records following the sixth opportunity to reproduce as in a cull-for-age strategy. The data were analyzed using a third-order polynomial random regression model. The EBV of interest for each animal was the sum of the age-specific EBV over the first 10 observations (reproductive success at ages 2-11). Thus, the EBV might be interpreted as the genetic expectation of number of calves produced when a female is given 10 opportunities to calve. Culling open cows resulted in the EBV for 3-yr-old cows being reduced from 8.27 ± 0.03 when open cows were retained to 7.60 ± 0.02 when they were culled. The magnitude of this effect decreased as cows grew older when they first failed to reproduce and were subsequently culled. Cows that did not fail over the 11 yr of simulated data had an EBV of 9.43 ± 0.01 and 9.35 ± 0.01 based on analyses of the complete data and the data in which cows that failed to reproduce were culled, respectively. Cows that had a missing observation for their second record had a significantly reduced EBV, but the corresponding effect at the fifth record was negligible. The current study illustrates that culling and management decisions, and particularly those that affect the beginning of the trajectory of sustained reproductive success, can influence both the magnitude and accuracy of resulting EBV.