Eco-evolutionary responses of biodiversity to climate change

explicit eco-evolutionary model of multi-species responses to climate change. We demonstrate that both dispersal and evolution differentially mediate extinction risks and biodiversity alterations through time and across climate gradients. Together, high genetic variance and low dispersal best minimized extinction risks. Surprisingly, high dispersal did not reduceextinctions,becausetheshiftingrangesofsomespecies hastened the decline of others. Evolutionary responses dominated during the later stages of climatic changes and in hot regions. No extinctions occurred without competition, which highlights the importance of including species interactions in global biodiversity models. Most notably, climate change createdextinctionandevolutionarydebts,withchangesinspecies richness and traits occurring long after climate stabilization. Therefore, even if we halt anthropogenic climate change today, transient eco-evolutionary dynamics would ensure centuries of additionalalterationsinglobalbiodiversity. Mostmodelsofspecies’responsestoclimatechangeexplorehow dispersal alone affects communities through shifting geographic ranges and ignore species interactions and evolutionary adaptation. However, species interactions often influence responses to climate 6 and climate-related traits can evolve rapidly 7,8 . Adaptation to new climates could moderate the direst predictions of biodiversity loss 9 whereas species interactions could enhance or diminish extinction risks depending on interaction type 10,11 . The available data do not yet permit the incorporation of these processes into quantitative estimates of extinction risk, but given the massive effort required to collect such data, a critical need exists for new theory to identify circumstances under which different processes may be particularly influential. Here we evaluate how ecological and evolutionary processes will interact in mediating species responses to climate change. To persist despite climate change, species need to disperse rapidly enough to track moving climate conditions, adapt to local conditions, or respond through plasticity 12 . These mechanisms interact with each other and with community dynamics through