Fast thinking in private equity: The role of heuristics in screening buyout opportunities

ABSTRACT This study utilizes a multiple-case analysis to examine the decision-making processes surrounding buyout decisions of small-to-medium businesses. Qualitative data were generated from semistructured interviews at 20 private equity groups. Rather than relying on a retrospective review of prior decisions, we present decision-makers with teasers, a summary of an investment opportunity. Our results indicate that heuristics are utilized to guide selection and execution of buyout investments. We also uncover the role of affect: strong positive or negative responses to specific stimuli in the teasers. Furthermore, the use of heuristics has important implications in the sourcing of private equity for business owners.

[1]  M. Wright,et al.  Is it All About Money? – Affective Commitment and the Difference between Family and Non‐Family Sellers in Buyouts , 2017 .

[2]  M. Wright,et al.  Opening the Black Box: Power in Buyout Negotiations and the Moderating Role of Private Equity Specialization , 2016 .

[3]  Melissa E. Graebner,et al.  Grand Challenges and Inductive Methods: Rigor without Rigor Mortis , 2016 .

[4]  Elizabeth Maitland,et al.  Decision making and uncertainty: The role of heuristics and experience in assessing a politically hazardous environment , 2015 .

[5]  John Van Reenen,et al.  Do Private Equity-owned Firms Have Better Management Practices? , 2015 .

[6]  Paul A. Gompers,et al.  What Do Private Equity Firms Say They Do? , 2015 .

[7]  F. Kellermanns,et al.  “Stepping into the buyers’ shoes”: Looking at the value of family firms through the eyes of private equity investors , 2014 .

[8]  Kathleen M. Eisenhardt,et al.  Response to Vuori and Vuori's commentary on “Heuristics in the strategy context” , 2014 .

[9]  Natalia Vuori,et al.  Comment on “Heuristics in the strategy context” by Bingham and Eisenhardt (2011) , 2014 .

[10]  Alexander McKelvie,et al.  What matters, matters differently: a conjoint analysis of the decision policies of angel and venture capital investors , 2014 .

[11]  Adam L. Alter The Benefits of Cognitive Disfluency , 2013 .

[12]  Ron S. Jarmin,et al.  Private Equity, Jobs, and Productivity , 2013 .

[13]  Dean A. Shepherd,et al.  Confirmatory search as a useful heuristic? testing the veracity of entrepreneurial conjectures , 2012 .

[14]  Paul A. Gompers,et al.  The Cost of Friendship , 2012 .

[15]  Mike Wright,et al.  Leveraged buyouts, private equity and jobs , 2012 .

[16]  Carole Howorth,et al.  Demand for private equity minority investments: A study of large family firms , 2012 .

[17]  M. Wright,et al.  Private Equity Portfolio Company Performance During The Global Recession , 2012 .

[18]  Christos Genakos,et al.  Management Practices Across Firms and Countries , 2012 .

[19]  Robert S. Harris,et al.  Private Equity Performance: What Do We Know? , 2012 .

[20]  K. Stanovich,et al.  Defining features versus incidental correlates of Type 1 and Type 2 processing , 2012 .

[21]  Christopher B. Bingham,et al.  Rational heuristics: the ‘simple rules’ that strategists learn from process experience , 2011 .

[22]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  Heuristic decision making. , 2011, Annual review of psychology.

[23]  Alexandra Dawson Private equity investment decisions in family firms: The role of human resources and agency costs , 2011 .

[24]  C. Gallois,et al.  Mapping a 40-Year History With Leximancer: Themes and Concepts in the Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology , 2010 .

[25]  Dean A. Shepherd,et al.  Cognitive Processes of Opportunity Recognition: The Role of Structural Alignment , 2010, Organ. Sci..

[26]  Christopher B. Bingham Oscillating improvisation: how entrepreneurial firms create success in foreign market entries over time , 2009 .

[27]  S. Manigart,et al.  Valuation of Angel‐Backed Companies: The Role of Investor Human Capital , 2009 .

[28]  Stuart A Read,et al.  Effectual versus predictive logics in entrepreneurial decision-making: Differences between experts and novices , 2009 .

[29]  G. Tyge Payne,et al.  The Deal Structuring Stage of the Venture Capitalist Decision‐Making Process: Exploring Confidence and Control** , 2009 .

[30]  M. Wright,et al.  Agency, Strategic Entrepreneurship, and the Performance of Private Equity–Backed Buyouts , 2009 .

[31]  Alexandra Dawson Investigating Decision-Making Criteria of Private Equity Investors in Family Firms , 2008 .

[32]  Per Strömberg,et al.  Leveraged Buyouts and Private Equity , 2008 .

[33]  Jonathan Evans Dual-processing accounts of reasoning, judgment, and social cognition. , 2008, Annual review of psychology.

[34]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  Why Heuristics Work , 2008, Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.

[35]  Mike Wright,et al.  Private Equity, Leveraged Buyouts and Governance , 2007 .

[36]  Kathleen M. Eisenhardt,et al.  Theory Building From Cases: Opportunities And Challenges , 2007 .

[37]  Thomas J. Cottrell,et al.  Investment Patterns of Informal Investors in the Alberta Private Equity Market** , 2007 .

[38]  Brad M. Barber,et al.  All that Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors , 2006 .

[39]  Joachim Henkel,et al.  What you are is what you like—similarity biases in venture capitalists' evaluations of start-up teams , 2006 .

[40]  Jonathan Evans The heuristic-analytic theory of reasoning: Extension and evaluation , 2006, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

[41]  Richard Sudek,et al.  Angel Investment Criteria , 2006 .

[42]  Andrew E. Smith,et al.  Evaluation of unsupervised semantic mapping of natural language with Leximancer concept mapping , 2006, Behavior research methods.

[43]  N. Epley,et al.  The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic , 2006, Psychological science.

[44]  Melissa L. Finucane,et al.  Risk as Value: Combining Affect and Analysis in Risk Judgments , 2006 .

[45]  Joseph Arvai,et al.  When Less is More: How Affect Influences Preferences When Comparing Low and High‐risk Options , 2006 .

[46]  Paul Slovic,et al.  Affect, risk, and decision making. , 2005, Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association.

[47]  Frans A. J. Van Den Bosch,et al.  Reputation Management Capabilities as Decision Rules , 2004 .

[48]  C. K. Mertz,et al.  An Emotion‐Based Model of Risk Perception and Stigma Susceptibility: Cognitive Appraisals of Emotion, Affective Reactivity, Worldviews, and Risk Perceptions in the Generation of Technological Stigma † , 2004, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[49]  C. Mason,et al.  What do Investors Look for in a Business Plan? , 2004 .

[50]  Gustavo Grullon,et al.  Advertising, Breadth of Ownership, and Liquidity , 2004 .

[51]  Dean A. Shepherd,et al.  Vcs' Decision Processes: Evidence Suggesting More Experience May Not Always Be Better , 2003 .

[52]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment. , 2002 .

[53]  Michael Boyd,et al.  On Ignorance, Intuition, and Investing: A Bear Market Test of the Recognition Heuristic , 2001 .

[54]  N. Epley,et al.  Putting Adjustment Back in the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic: Differential Processing of Self-Generated and Experimenter-Provided Anchors , 2001, Psychological science.

[55]  Dean A. Shepherd,et al.  The nature of information and overconfidence on venture capitalists' decision making , 2001 .

[56]  Mandeep K. Dhami,et al.  Fast and frugal versus regression models of human judgement , 2001 .

[57]  G. Meyer,et al.  The potential of actuarial decision models: Can they improve the venture capital investment decision? , 2000 .

[58]  Mark Simon,et al.  Cognitive biases, risk perception, and venture formation: How individuals decide to start companies , 2000 .

[59]  George H. Haines,et al.  Private investors' investment criteria: Insights from qualitative data , 1999 .

[60]  Mike Wright,et al.  Venture Capital and Private Equity: A Review and Synthesis , 1998 .

[61]  R. Zeckhauser,et al.  Amos Tversky and the Ascent of Behavioral Economics , 1998 .

[62]  Vance H. Fried,et al.  Toward a Model of Venture Capital Investment Decision Making , 1994 .

[63]  B. Golden The past is the past--or is it? The use of retrospective accounts as indicators of past strategy. , 1992, Academy of Management journal. Academy of Management.

[64]  G. Huber Organizational Learning: The Contributing Processes and the Literatures , 1991 .

[65]  Dorothy Leonard-Barton,et al.  A Dual Methodology for Case Studies: Synergistic Use of a Longitudinal Single Site with Replicated Multiple Sites , 1990 .

[66]  K. Eisenhardt Building theories from case study research , 1989, STUDI ORGANIZZATIVI.

[67]  Ian C. MacMillan,et al.  Criteria distinguishing successful from unsuccessful ventures in the venture screening process , 1987 .

[68]  Tyzoon T. Tyebjee,et al.  A Model of Venture Capitalist Investment Activity , 1984 .

[69]  A. Tversky,et al.  The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. , 1981, Science.

[70]  H. Simon,et al.  Rational choice and the structure of the environment. , 1956, Psychological review.

[71]  H. Simon,et al.  A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice , 1955 .

[72]  Ulrike Goldschmidt Advances In Behavioral Economics , 2016 .

[73]  Tim Mcdaniel Selling Your Business , 2014 .

[74]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  Homo Heuristicus: Why Biased Minds Make Better Inferences , 2009, Top. Cogn. Sci..

[75]  J. March,et al.  Organizational Learning , 2008 .

[76]  Melissa L. Finucane,et al.  Rational actors or rational fools: implications of the affect heuristic for behavioral economics , 2002 .

[77]  S. Frederick Heuristics and Biases: Automated Choice Heuristics , 2002 .

[78]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  Models of ecological rationality: the recognition heuristic. , 2002, Psychological review.

[79]  T. C. Powell,et al.  Behavioral strategy , 2002 .

[80]  Melissa L. Finucane,et al.  Heuristics and Biases: The Affect Heuristic , 2002 .

[81]  K. Eisenhardt,et al.  Strategy as simple rules. , 2001, Harvard business review.

[82]  Stephen M. Johnson,et al.  The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits , 2000 .

[83]  G. Gigerenzer,et al.  How good are fast and frugal heuristics , 1999 .

[84]  Herbert A. Simon,et al.  Perceiving and managing business risks: differences between entrepreneurs and bankers , 1998 .

[85]  Lowell W. Busenitz,et al.  Differences between entrepreneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision-making , 1997 .

[86]  G Gigerenzer,et al.  Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality. , 1996, Psychological review.

[87]  J. Conlisk Why Bounded Rationality , 1996 .

[88]  Charles W. Hofer,et al.  Venture capitalists' decision criteria in new venture evaluation , 1993 .

[89]  E. Guba,et al.  Naturalistic inquiry: Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, 1985, 416 pp., $25.00 (Cloth) , 1985 .

[90]  Bharath Sriraman,et al.  Heuristics and Biases , 1974 .

[91]  Jonathan Evans,et al.  Science Perspectives on Psychological , 2022 .