Based on the DES Method of The Beijing PTSD Forecast Analysis

Based on the of historical data past nine years,a Double Exponential Smoothing(DES) method is used to estimate the recent public transport services demand(PTSD) in Beijing and medium-term change trends,its demand and its relevant characteristics.What we find as follow;1.In the next five years,the total demand for dominant transit services average about 5 billion passengers,with an annual average of the interval of dynamic adaptive service demand increase would inhabit about 60 to 140 million people.2.The PTSD showed stickiness obviously which had been highly insensitive to the factors of economic growth,the changed total resident population and tourism growth.3.Simply transit price decline can hardly change the behavior of latent consumer.Therefore,we need a further study of transfer channels for financial subsidies. On the other hand,we should combine the re-allocation of rights of road in order to improve the consumption environment of public transport,thereby effectively stimulate the PTSD increas.