Evaluating utility conservation programs

Abstract This paper summarizes a detailed plan for evaluation of the residential energy conservation programs offered by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA). The major purpose of the evaluation is to determine the energy savings attributable to the programs and to identify differences between program participants and nonparticipants. The focus of this paper is on the sampling issues associated with reliable estimates of energy savings. The methodology attempts to correct for the self-selection bias likely to occur in conservation program evaluation by using intentional nonrandom sampling. In addition, the paper suggests a variety of analytical approaches to analyzing the data with respect to energy savings. The proposed design, using four different groups to estimate program effects, is a comprehensive endeavor. This is appropriate for BPA because of the substantial investment it is making in conservation. However, the design is flexible and allows for use offewer groups to reduce evaluation costs.