Impact of carbon policy on the composition of the vehicle fleet in New Zealand

An integrated system dynamics model of New Zealand's energy and economic systems is used to examine the impact of carbon taxes ranging from $NZ25 per tonne of carbon dioxide (CO2) to $NZ150 per tonne of CO2 on vehicle fleet composition to 2050. Key technology drivers of cost improvement, consumer preference, availability of LNG and oil prices are identified. The vehicle technologies modeled are petrol/diesel (ICEV) and hydrogen (HICEV) internal combustion engine vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Results show BEVs and HFCVs may constitute up to 40 per cent and 80 per cent of the vehicle fleet respectively in 2050 with substantial carbon dioxide emissions reductions possible from both. Interestingly, a carbon policy discourages BEVs and appears to have little effect on hydrogen vehicles. (a)