MICROSIMULATION OF ORGANIZED CAR SHARING: DESCRIPTION OF THE MODELS AND THEIR CALIBRATION

This report is one of a series that report the methodology and findings of an investigation of the likely impact of organized car-sharing schemes. This volume summarizes the structure of a microsimulation model of organized car sharing. It includes a description of the model itself, the preparation of the necessary data base, and the calibration of the choice models by using data from a special survey. Microsimulation is a technique of computerized modeling within which the decision-making process is replicated for each individual in the system. Monte Carlo sampling of probability distribution is used to generate all the individual decision makers, each of whom is uniquely identified within the model. The model consists of three stages: In the first stage it considers each eligible trip maker and predicts whether or not he or she will apply to join an organized car-sharing scheme; in the second stage all these applications are processed to produce match lists of potential traveling companions; in final stage the model considers the decision by each applicant of whether to form a car-sharing arrangement with anyone on his or her match lists. The model was successfully calibrated and its predictions accord well with empirical evidence of the performance of car-sharing schemes. (Author)