Prediction of system reliability for multiple component repairs

Optimal asset management in industries requires accurate reliability prediction of complex repairable systems. A Split System Approach (SSA) has previously been presented for predicting the reliability of complex systems with multiple Preventive Maintenance (PM) cycles over a long term horizon. However, the algorithms in that model were derived with an assumption that the same single component is always repaired in all PM actions. This paper extends the model to a scenario where a different single component is repaired each time. This extended model can be used to determine the remaining life of the system and to describe the changes in reliability with PM actions for this scenario. As a result, it can be used to support asset PM decision making over the operation and maintenance phase of the asset. Assets often have a number of vulnerable components, i.e., the lives of these components are much shorter than the lives of the rest of the system. An optimal time of sequential PM actions of these critical components can maximise the useful life of the asset effectively. The model developed in this paper can be used to determine this optimal PM strategy.

[1]  Sophie Mercier.  A preventive maintenance policy with sequential checking procedure for a Markov deteriorating system , 2002, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[2]  H. Pham,et al.  Invited reviewImperfect maintenance , 1996 .

[3]  Ming J. Zuo,et al.  Optimal design of series-parallel systems considering maintenance and salvage value , 2001 .

[4]  Yuo-Tern Tsai,et al.  A study of availability-centered preventive maintenance for multi-component systems , 2004, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[5]  M. Vangel.  System Reliability Theory: Models and Statistical Methods , 1996 .

[6]  Lin Ma,et al.  Reliability Prediction of Repairable Systems for Single Component Repair , 2004 .

[7]  C. E. Love,et al.  Statistical analysis of an age model for imperfectly repaired systems , 1992 .

[8]  Lin Ma,et al.  Determination of optimal preventitive maintenance strategy for serial production lines , 2008, WCE 2008.

[9]  Ketut Buda Artana,et al.  Spreadsheet modeling of optimal maintenance schedule for components in wear-out phase , 2002, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[10]  Ming J. Zuo,et al.  General sequential imperfect preventive maintenance models , 2000 .

[11]  Lin Ma,et al.  Prediction of system reliability for single component repair , 2007 .

[12]  Larry H. Crow,et al.  Reliability Analysis for Complex, Repairable Systems , 1975 .

[13]  David J. Sherwin,et al.  System Reliability Theory—Models and Statistical Methods , 1995 .

[14]  Ming J. Zuo,et al.  Reliability-Based Design of Systems Considering Preventive Maintenance and Minimal Repair , 1997 .

[15]  Charles E Ebeling,et al.  An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering , 1996 .

[16]  Eric R. Ziegel,et al.  System Reliability Theory: Models, Statistical Methods, and Applications , 2004, Technometrics.