Soft sensors model optimization and application for the refinery real-time prediction of toluene content

ABSTRACT Industrial facilities nowadays show an increasing need for continuous measurements, monitoring and controlling many process variables. The on-line process analyzers, being the key indicators of process and product quality, are often unavailable or malfunction. This paper describes development of soft sensor models based on the real plant data that could replace an on-line analyzer when it is unavailable, or to monitor and diagnose an analyzer’s performance. Soft sensors for continuous toluene content estimation based on the real aromatic plant data are developed. The autoregressive model with exogenous inputs, output error, the nonlinear autoregressive model consisted of exogenous inputs and Hammerstein–Wiener models were developed. In case of complex real-plant processes a large number of model regressors and coefficients need to be optimized. To overcome an exhaustive trial-and-error procedure of optimal model regressor order determination, differential evolution optimization method is applied. In general, the proposed approach could be, of interest for the development of dynamic polynomial identification models. The performance of the models are validated on the real-plant data.