New Efficient Regression Method for Local AADT Estimation via SCAD Variable Selection

This paper focuses on the estimation and variable selection for the local annual average daily traffic (AADT). The variable selection procedure by smoothly clipped absolute deviation penalty is proposed. It can simultaneously select significant variables and estimate unknown regression coefficients in one step. The estimation algorithm and the tuning parameters selection are presented. The data from Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, USA, in 2007 are used for demonstration with our proposed variable selection procedures. The results show that this penalized regression technology improves the local AADT estimation along with satellite information, and it outperforms some other benchmark models.

[1]  Shiliang Sun,et al.  Network-Scale Traffic Modeling and Forecasting with Graphical Lasso and Neural Networks , 2012 .

[2]  Ming Zhong,et al.  Improving Group Assignment and AADT Estimation Accuracy of Short-term Traffic Counts using Historical Seasonal Patterns & Bayesian Statistics , 2012 .

[3]  R. Tibshirani Regression Shrinkage and Selection via the Lasso , 1996 .

[4]  Tao Wang,et al.  Improved Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) estimation for local roads using parcel-level travel demand modeling , 2012 .

[5]  T. Kuczek,et al.  Annual Average Daily Traffic Prediction Model for County Roads , 1998 .

[6]  Tom Thomas,et al.  Predictions of Urban Volumes in Single Time Series , 2010, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[7]  Wenjiang J. Fu,et al.  Asymptotics for lasso-type estimators , 2000 .

[8]  Jianqing Fan,et al.  A Selective Overview of Variable Selection in High Dimensional Feature Space. , 2009, Statistica Sinica.

[9]  Yuanlu Bao,et al.  Efficient local AADT estimation via SCAD variable selection based on regression models , 2011, 2011 Chinese Control and Decision Conference (CCDC).

[10]  Jianqing Fan,et al.  Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties , 2001 .

[11]  Agachai Sumalee,et al.  Short-Term Traffic State Prediction Based on Temporal–Spatial Correlation , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[12]  Fang Zhao,et al.  Estimation of Annual Average Daily Traffic for Nonstate Roads in a Florida County , 1999 .

[13]  Kun Li,et al.  Modeling of traffic flow of automated vehicles , 2004, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[14]  H. Akaike Maximum likelihood identification of Gaussian autoregressive moving average models , 1973 .

[15]  Shiliang Sun,et al.  The Selective Random Subspace Predictor for Traffic Flow Forecasting , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[16]  F. Zhao,et al.  Using Geographically Weighted Regression Models to Estimate Annual Average Daily Traffic , 2004 .

[17]  Jon D Fricker,et al.  Comparison of Annual Average Daily Traffic Estimates: Traditional Factor, Statistical, Artificial Neural Network, and Fuzzy Basis Neural Network Approach , 2008 .

[18]  Fei Xu,et al.  Neural Networks as Alternative to Traditional Factor Approach of Annual Average Daily Traffic Estimation from Traffic Counts , 1999 .

[19]  Fei Xu,et al.  Application of Neural Networks to Estimate AADT on Low-Volume Roads , 2001 .

[20]  Lee D. Han,et al.  AADT prediction using support vector regression with data-dependent parameters , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[21]  Fei Xu,et al.  Estimation of Annual Average Daily Traffic on Low-Volume Roads: Factor Approach Versus Neural Networks , 2000 .

[23]  Zhuojun Jiang,et al.  Improved AADT Estimation by Combining Information in Image- and Ground-Based Traffic Data , 2006 .

[24]  H. Zou The Adaptive Lasso and Its Oracle Properties , 2006 .

[25]  Michael P Dixon,et al.  GIS Tools to Estimate Average Annual Daily Traffic , 2012 .

[26]  G. Schwarz Estimating the Dimension of a Model , 1978 .

[27]  Fang Zhao Estimation of Annual Average Daily Traffic in a Florida County Using GIS and Regression , 2001 .

[28]  Jon D Fricker,et al.  Applying K-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm for Statewide Annual Average Daily Traffic Estimates , 2008 .

[29]  J. Eom,et al.  Improving the Prediction of Annual Average Daily Traffic for Nonfreeway Facilities by Applying a Spatial Statistical Method , 2006 .

[30]  Wenjiang J. Fu Penalized Regressions: The Bridge versus the Lasso , 1998 .

[31]  William H. K. Lam,et al.  ESTIMATION OF AADT FROM SHORT PERIOD COUNTS IN HONG KONG - A COMPARISON BETWEEN NEURAL NETWORK METHOD AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS , 2000 .

[32]  Lei Zhang,et al.  Multimodel Ensemble for Freeway Traffic State Estimations , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[33]  R. Kingan,et al.  Robust Regression Methods for Traffic Growth Forecasting , 2006 .