A new view of earthquake and volcano precursors

A close coupling between monitoring and modeling is needed for a quantitative prediction of volcanic eruption and earthquake occurrence. The need is demonstrated for the volcano, Piton de la Fournaise, for which a relatively simple model can be constructed because of the isolated tectonic setting and can be tested in a short time because of the high rate of eruptions. Our conceptual model (Fig. 2) explains various observations for each of the 49 eruptions since 1972 in terms of the varying conditions of the model elements, allowing inferences on causal relations between consecutive eruptive periods, recognized as alternating active and quiet ones, as well as predictions on the possible eruption scenarios for the future. Lessons learned from the volcano are applied to earthquake prediction in California, and we found a model of earthquake loading process by plate-driving forces that can be effectively constrained by data from the existing seismic network. The model identified that the periods of several years preceding the 1952 Kern County earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are in the anomalous phase of the loading process. A companion paper by Jin et al. (2004) in the present issue shows that the 1992 Landers earthquake and the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake were also preceded by the period of anomalous loading process.

[1]  K. Ogawa,et al.  Estimation of Curie point temperature and geothermal structure of island arcs of Japan , 1989 .

[2]  K. Aki,et al.  Comparison of Mount Etna, Kilauea, and Piton de la Fournaise by a quantitative modeling of their eruption histories , 2001 .

[3]  Keiiti Aki,et al.  Determination of the three‐dimensional seismic structure of the lithosphere , 1977 .

[4]  N. Maeda,et al.  Detailed Mapping of Focal Mechanisms in/around the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake Rupture Zone , 1997 .

[5]  Yun‐tai Chen,et al.  International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology , 2004 .

[6]  Didier Massonnet,et al.  Opening of an eruptive fissure and seaward displacement at Piton De La Fournaise Volcano measured by RADARSAT satellite radar interferometry , 1999 .

[7]  Robert B. Newman,et al.  Collected Papers on Acoustics , 1927 .

[8]  Kazushige Obara,et al.  Nonvolcanic Deep Tremor Associated with Subduction in Southwest Japan , 2002, Science.

[9]  Bernard A. Chouet,et al.  TEMPORAL VARIATION IN THE ATTENUATION OF EARTHQUAKE CODA NEAR STONE CANYON, CALIFORNIA , 1979 .

[10]  T. Tsukuda.  Coda-Q before and after the 1983 Misasa earthquake of M 6.2, Tottori Prefecture, Japan , 1988 .

[11]  A. Jin,et al.  Spatial and temporal correlation between coda Q−1 and seismicity and its physical mechanism , 1989 .

[12]  Kiyoshi Ito,et al.  Regional variations of the cutoff depth of seismicity in the crust and their relation to heat flow and large inland-earthquakes , 1990 .

[13]  K. Aki,et al.  Deep volcanic tremor and magma ascent mechanism under Kilauea, Hawaii , 1981 .

[14]  K. Aki,et al.  Temporal correlation between coda Q -1 and seismicity—evidence for a structural unit in the brittle-ductile transition zone , 1993 .

[15]  K. Aki,et al.  Erratum: ``Seismic monitoring and modeling of an active volcano for prediction'' , 2000 .

[16]  T. Sagiya,et al.  Water-weakened lower crust and its role in the concentrated deformation in the Japanese Islands , 2002 .

[17]  L. Stieltjes,et al.  A statistical and probabilistic study of the historic activity of Piton de la Fournaise, Reunion Island, Indian Ocean , 1989 .

[18]  Max Wyss,et al.  Evaluation of Proposed Earthquake Precursors , 1991 .

[19]  Earthquake “Quanta” as an explanation for observed magnitudes and stress drops , 1995, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[20]  Mark D. Zoback,et al.  Implications of hydrostatic pore pressures and high crustal strength for the deformation of intraplate lithosphere , 2001 .

[21]  J. Zlotnicki,et al.  Eruptive mechanism on Piton de la Fournaise volcano associated with the December 4, 1983, and January 18, 1984 eruptions from ground deformation monitoring and photogrammetric surveys , 1990 .

[22]  Vladimir I. Keilis-borok.  Fundamentals of Earthquake Prediction: Four Paradigms , 2003 .

[23]  Charles S. Mueller,et al.  Source parameters of the 1980 Mammoth Lakes, California, earthquake sequence , 1982 .

[24]  K. Aki,et al.  Seismological evidence for the brittle-ductile interaction hypothesis on earthquake loading , 2004 .

[25]  Y. Yamamoto,et al.  A CONSTITUTIVE LAW FOR THE SHEAR FAILURE OF ROCK UNDER LITHOSPHERIC CONDITIONS , 1997 .

[26]  A. Hirn,et al.  The beginning of the 1985–1987 eruptive cycle at Piton de la Fournaise (La Reunion); new insights in the magmatic and volcano-tectonic systems , 1989 .

[27]  Francesco Mulargia,et al.  Earthquake prediction and public policy , 2003 .

[28]  Keiiti Aki,et al.  Scattering of P waves under the Montana Lasa , 1973 .

[29]  K. Aki.  Interrelation between fault zone structures and earthquake processes , 1995 .

[30]  M. Furumoto,et al.  Temporal changes in coda Q −1 and b value due to the static stress change associated with the 1995 Hyogo‐ken Nanbu earthquake , 2000 .

[31]  Michael Fehler,et al.  Seismic Wave Propagation and Scattering in the Heterogeneous Earth , 2012 .

[32]  William L. Ellsworth,et al.  Three-Dimensional Crust and Mantle Structure of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii , 1977 .

[33]  M. Zoback,et al.  34 State of stress in the Earth's lithosphere , 2002 .

[34]  K. Aki.  Analysis of the seismic coda of local earthquakes as scattered waves , 1969 .

[35]  R. Sibson.  Fault zone models, heat flow, and the depth distribution of earthquakes in the continental crust of the United States , 1982 .

[36]  K. Ishibashi.  Seismotectonic modeling of the repeating M 7-class disastrous Odawara earthquake in the Izu collision zone, central Japan , 2004 .

[37]  R. Benites,et al.  Relation between direct wave Q and coda Q: a numerical approach , 1995 .

[38]  K. Aki,et al.  Separation of intrinsic and scattering attenuation in southern California using TERRAscope data , 1994 .