How much is enough? An integrated examination of energy security, economic growth and climate change related to hydropower expansion in Brazil

Reconciling economic growth and energy supply with the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and other goals for environmental protection is a major challenge for emerging economies such as Brazil. Establishing energy security standards consistent with realistic economic growth projections while considering climate change requires complex calculations and relies upon risky assumptions. Yet, such calculations and decisions must be made to avoid future energy shortages and economic crises. This paper discusses the current dilemma concerning planning and decision-making for the Brazilian electric sector considering the construction of hydroelectric power plants in the Amazon region, energy security requirements, projected economic growth and climate change feedbacks.

[1]  R. Betts,et al.  Climate Change, Deforestation, and the Fate of the Amazon , 2008, Science.

[2]  D. Vuuren,et al.  Indicators for energy security , 2009 .

[3]  K. Kaygusuz.  Energy for sustainable development: A case of developing countries , 2012 .

[4]  Daniel Yergin,et al.  Ensuring Energy Security , 2006 .

[5]  R. Walker,et al.  Statistical confirmation of indirect land use change in the Brazilian Amazon , 2011 .

[6]  Michael T. Coe,et al.  Dependence of hydropower energy generation on forests in the Amazon Basin at local and regional scales , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[7]  Philip M. Fearnside,et al.  Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Hydroelectric Dams: Controversies Provide a Springboard for Rethinking a Supposedly ‘Clean’ Energy Source. An Editorial Comment , 2004 .

[8]  Clinton N. Jenkins,et al.  Proliferation of Hydroelectric Dams in the Andean Amazon and Implications for Andes-Amazon Connectivity , 2012, PloS one.

[9]  Philip M. Fearnside,et al.  Avança Brasil: Environmental and Social Consequences of Brazil's Planned Infrastructure in Amazonia , 2002, Environmental management.

[10]  Marcos Aurélio Vasconcelos de Freitas,et al.  Amazon and the expansion of hydropower in Brazil: Vulnerability, impacts and possibilities for adaptation to global climate change , 2011 .

[11]  P. Fearnside.  Emissions from tropical hydropower and the IPCC , 2015 .

[12]  Philip M. Fearnside,et al.  Do Hydroelectric Dams Mitigate Global Warming? The Case of Brazil's CuruÁ-una Dam , 2005 .

[13]  B. Flach,et al.  Risk Constrained Portfolio Selection of Renewable Sources in Hydrothermal Electricity Markets , 2009, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[14]  J. Terborgh,et al.  Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest , 2009, Science.

[15]  Philip M. Fearnside,et al.  GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM HYDROELECTRIC DAMS: CONTROVERSIES PROVIDE A SPRINGBOARD FOR RETHINKING A SUPPOSEDLY "CLEAN" ENERGY SOURCE , 2004 .

[16]  Sergio Valdir Bajay.  Integrating competition and planning: A mixed institutional model of the Brazilian electric power sector , 2006 .

[17]  J. Marengo,et al.  The drought of 2010 in the context of historical droughts in the Amazon region , 2011 .

[18]  Tugrul U. Daim,et al.  Application of technology roadmaps for renewable energy sector , 2010 .

[19]  João Lampreia,et al.  Analyses and perspectives for Brazilian low carbon technological development in the energy sector , 2011 .