Modeling cascading failures in ‘systems of systems’ with uncertain behavior

We model cascading failures in interdependent critical infrastructures (CIs). We adopt a model-ing framework based on simulation, which accounts for the physical specialization of the components and their interdependencies. We analyze cascading failures triggered by the intentional removal of a single com-ponent in the CIs and study the influence of the systems operating safety margins and interdependency para-meters on the consequences of the cascade. Uncertainties in the model parameters are propagated, within a probabilistic representation framework.

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