System Risk Curves: Probabilistic Performance Scenarios for Highway Networks Subject to Earthquake Damage

Monte Carlo simulation techniques are used with bridge fragility curves to evaluate bridge damage in terms of a bridge damage index, and highway network link damage in terms of a link damage index. Static, user-equilibrium analysis is used to evaluate total transportation network delay due to seismically induced damage inflicted on the Los Angeles and Orange County State highway and freeway network. A method of regional seismic risk analysis for highway systems is developed based on the definition of scenario earthquakes representing the seismic hazard of the region, and hazard-consistent probabilities are computed for each scenario. The final result of these efforts is a transportation system risk curve.

[1]  K. Law,et al.  Methodologies for Evaluating the Socio-Economic Consequences of Large Earthquakes , 1997 .

[2]  Chris Hendrickson,et al.  Schedule Delay and Departure Time Decisions in a Deterministic Model , 1981 .

[3]  Stephanie E. Chang,et al.  Direct and Indirect Economic Losses from Earthquake Damage , 1997 .

[4]  Stephanie E. Chang,et al.  Probabilistic Earthquake Scenarios: Extending Risk Analysis Methodologies to Spatially Distributed Systems , 2000 .

[5]  Larry J. LeBlanc,et al.  AN EFFICIENT APPROACH TO SOLVING THE ROAD NETWORK EQUILIBRIUM TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT PROBLEM. IN: THE AUTOMOBILE , 1975 .

[6]  Gerald L. Thompson,et al.  A Dynamic Space-Time Network Flow Model for City Traffic Congestion , 1987, Transp. Sci..

[7]  H Y Kim,et al.  STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF FRAGILITY CURVES , 2000 .

[8]  James E. Moore,et al.  EVALUATING SYSTEM ATMIS TECHNOLOGIES VIA RAPID ESTIMATION OF NETWORK FLOW , 1995 .

[9]  Masanobu Shinozuka,et al.  Integrating Transportation Network and Regional Economic Models to Estimate the Costs of a Large Urban Earthquake , 2001 .

[10]  Moshe Ben-Akiva,et al.  Dynamic network equilibrium research , 1985 .

[11]  Hani S. Mahmassani,et al.  Dynamic User Equilibrium Departure Time and Route Choice on Idealized Traffic Arterials , 1984, Transp. Sci..

[12]  James E. Moore,et al.  Loss Estimation Due to Seismic Risks to Highway Systems , 1997 .

[13]  Masanobu Shinozuka,et al.  DEVELOPMENT OF BRIDGE FRAGILITY CURVES , 1998 .

[14]  Hai Yang,et al.  Transport bilevel programming problems: recent methodological advances , 2001 .

[15]  Deepak K. Merchant,et al.  A Model and an Algorithm for the Dynamic Traffic Assignment Problems , 1978 .

[16]  Kenneth W. Campbell,et al.  Empirical Near-Source Attenuation Relationships for Horizontal and Vertical Components of Peak Ground Acceleration, Peak Ground Velocity, and Pseudo-Absolute Acceleration Response Spectra , 1997 .

[17]  Thomas H. Heaton,et al.  Real-Time Loss Estimation as an Emergency Response Decision Support System: The Early Post-Earthquake Damage Assessment Tool (EPEDAT) , 1997 .

[18]  Yosef Sheffi,et al.  Urban Transportation Networks: Equilibrium Analysis With Mathematical Programming Methods , 1985 .

[19]  William A. Bryant,et al.  Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the state of California , 1996 .

[20]  Terry L. Friesz,et al.  A Variational Inequality Formulation of the Dynamic Network User Equilibrium Problem , 1993, Oper. Res..

[21]  Malachy Carey.  Nonconvexity of the dynamic traffic assignment problem , 1992 .

[22]  Stephanie E. Chang,et al.  Measuring post-disaster transportation system performance: the 1995 Kobe earthquake in comparative perspective , 2001 .