Power System Operation Risk Assessment Based on Credibility Theory Part Three Engineering Application

Based on the credibility theory, an algorithm for random fuzzy operational risk assessment is proposed, and power system operating risk is expressed by a random fuzzy expected value. Based on the proposed algorithm, a practical risk assessment software package is developed. Some important functions are implemented in this software:①Generator forced outage and cascading failure caused by refusal operations of relays can be considered;②An adequacy model and a composite stability and adequacy model are adopted in power system simulation respectively;③Some tools, such as generation dispatching, load shedding and re-closure types selection, are developed to support the decision making. The numeric tests on WSCC 9 system and a provincial network are done and the results verify the validity of the method. To integrate the system with different vendors' EMS/DTS, IEC 61970 is adopted in the software development. And a technique for parallel computing is also realized to speed up the computation. Results for numeric tests under various conditions are given. The proposed risk evaluation system has been put into practice in Jinghua power bureau, and the practicability of the propose method is verified. This work is supported by Special Fund of the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2004CB217904) and the Doctoral Scientific Research and Innovation Foundation of Tsinghua University.