Reevaluación del peligro sísmico probabilístico en Chile central

Chile es uno de los paises mas sismicos del mundo, siendo testigo de terremotos que han ocasionado perdidas tanto humanas como materiales. En ambitos de la ingenieria, el peligro sismico es una de las herramientas mas utilizadas en la prevencion de dichas perdidas. El presente estudio revisa el estado del arte de la metodologia probabilistica, comparando tres aproximaciones para su calculo y adaptandolas a Chile central. Se incorporan un conjunto de nuevos antecedentes, tales como la definicion de las fuentes sismogenicas mas importantes (interplaca, intraplaca de profundidad intermedia y corticales), reestimacion de las leyes de Gutenberg-Richter y el uso de leyes de atenuacion especificas a cada una de ellas. Con estos nuevos datos se generan mapas que muestran la aceleracion horizontal maxima (PGA) esperada para una cierta probabilidad en un determinado periodo de vida util donde no solo influye la fuente interplaca, sino que tambien se observa el efecto de las fuentes intraplaca de profundidad intermedia y cortical. En la zona urbana de Santiago, se obtienen valores PGA de 55% de la aceleracion de gravedad (g) para un periodo de retorno de 475 anos y de 72% g para un periodo de retomo de 1950 anos, siendo solo un 13% inferiores a los encontrados en la zona costera (63% g y 83% g, respectivamente).

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