Time-Consistent Strategies for Multi-Period Portfolio Optimization with/without the Risk-Free Asset

The pre-commitment and time-consistent strategies are the two most representative investment strategies for the classic multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection problem. In this paper, we revisit the case in which there exists one risk-free asset in the market and prove that the time-consistent solution is equivalent to the optimal open-loop solution for the classic multi-period mean-variance model. Then, we further derive the explicit time-consistent solution for the classic multi-period mean-variance model only with risky assets, by constructing a novel Lagrange function and using backward induction. Also, we prove that the Sharpe ratio with both risky and risk-free assets strictly dominates that of only with risky assets under the time-consistent strategy setting. After the theoretical investigation, we perform extensive numerical simulations and out-of-sample tests to compare the performance of pre-commitment and time-consistent strategies. The empirical studies shed light on the important question: what is the primary motivation of using the time-consistent investment strategy.

[1]  Zhiping Chen,et al.  Time-consistent investment policies in Markovian markets: A case of mean–variance analysis , 2014 .

[2]  Suleyman Basak,et al.  Dynamic Mean-Variance Asset Allocation , 2009 .

[3]  X. Zhou,et al.  Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection: A Stochastic LQ Framework , 2000 .

[4]  Gang George Yin,et al.  Markowitz's mean-variance portfolio selection with regime switching: from discrete-time models to their continuous-time limits , 2004, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control.

[5]  The premium of dynamic trading in a discrete-time setting , 2016 .

[6]  X. Zhou,et al.  MEAN–VARIANCE PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION WITH STATE‐DEPENDENT RISK AVERSION , 2014 .

[7]  Zhifeng Hao,et al.  Uncertain exit time multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection with endogenous liabilities and Markov jumps , 2013, Autom..

[8]  C. Fershtman,et al.  Identification of classes of differential games for which the open loop is a degenerate feedback Nash equilibrium , 1987 .

[9]  Giuseppe Carlo Calafiore,et al.  Multi-period portfolio optimization with linear control policies , 2008, Autom..

[10]  J. Mossin Optimal multiperiod portfolio policies , 1968 .

[11]  Shouyang Wang,et al.  Risk control over bankruptcy in dynamic portfolio selection: a generalized mean-variance formulation , 2004, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control.

[12]  Tomas Björk,et al.  A theory of Markovian time-inconsistent stochastic control in discrete time , 2014, Finance Stochastics.

[13]  Duan Li,et al.  Optimal Multiperiod Mean-Variance Policy Under No-Shorting Constraint , 2012 .

[14]  Q. Ma,et al.  Asset allocation for a DC pension fund with stochastic income and mortality risk: A multi-period mean–variance framework , 2014 .

[15]  Time Consistent vs. Time Inconsistent Dynamic Asset Allocation: Some Utility Cost Calculations for Mean Variance Preferences , 2011 .

[16]  Markus Leippold,et al.  A Geometric Approach to Multiperiod Mean Variance Optimization of Assets and Liabilities , 2002 .

[17]  Zhiping Chen,et al.  Optimal investment policy in the time consistent mean–variance formulation , 2013 .

[18]  B. Dumas,et al.  An Exact Solution to a Dynamic Portfolio Choice Problem under Transactions Costs , 1991 .

[19]  Zhongfei Li,et al.  Optimal time-consistent investment and reinsurance policies for mean-variance insurers , 2011 .

[20]  Chunhua Lan An Out-of-Sample Evaluation of Dynamic Portfolio Strategies , 2014 .

[21]  Tomas Bjork,et al.  A General Theory of Markovian Time Inconsistent Stochastic Control Problems , 2010 .

[22]  Giuseppe Carlo Calafiore,et al.  An Affine Control Method for Optimal Dynamic Asset Allocation with Transaction Costs , 2009, SIAM J. Control. Optim..

[23]  Gang George Yin,et al.  Markowitz's Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Regime Switching: A Continuous-Time Model , 2003, SIAM J. Control. Optim..

[24]  Huiling Wu Time-Consistent Strategies for a Multiperiod Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection Problem , 2013, J. Appl. Math..

[25]  Zhongfei Li,et al.  Multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection with Markov regime switching and uncertain time-horizon , 2011, J. Syst. Sci. Complex..

[26]  Duan Li,et al.  Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Selection: Multiperiod Mean‐Variance Formulation , 2000 .

[27]  Victor DeMiguel,et al.  Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1/N Portfolio Strategy? , 2009 .

[28]  Duan Li,et al.  BETTER THAN DYNAMIC MEAN‐VARIANCE: TIME INCONSISTENCY AND FREE CASH FLOW STREAM , 2012 .

[29]  Hanqing Jin,et al.  Time-Inconsistent Stochastic Linear-Quadratic Control , 2011, SIAM J. Control. Optim..

[30]  Christoph Czichowsky,et al.  Time-consistent mean-variance portfolio selection in discrete and continuous time , 2012, Finance and Stochastics.

[31]  Alain Bensoussan,et al.  Time-Consistent Portfolio Selection under Short-Selling Prohibition: From Discrete to Continuous Setting , 2014, SIAM J. Financial Math..

[32]  Xun Yu Zhou,et al.  The premium of dynamic trading , 2009, 0906.0999.

[33]  Chanjuan Li,et al.  Multi-period portfolio optimization for asset-liability management with bankrupt control , 2012, Appl. Math. Comput..