Social mobility and fertility revisited: some new models for the analysis of the mobility effects hypothesis.

Previous designs for the analysis of the mobility effects hypothesis do not incorporate explanatory variables other than origins destination and mobility and most designs fail to parametrize the effects of origins and destinations in a substantively defensible fashion. Sobel (1981) proposed a class of models for the analysis of mobility effects that parametrizes the effects of origins and destinations in a sociologically meaningful fashion but his models do not allow for the introduction of explanatory variables other than mobility. This paper shows how to incorporate covariates in the models proposed by Sobel thereby allowing for a better assessment of the mobility effects hypotheses. Estimation of the new models is discussed and the relationship between social mobility and fertility as previously considered by Blau and Duncan (1967) is reexamined. Alghough this reexamination largely confirms the negative results obtained by Blau and Duncan (1967) on mobility effects the models proposed here also yield previously unobtainable conclusions about the relative import of various origin and destination categories in the acculturation process and the differential impact of various explanatory variables. The relative impact of origins and destinations on fertility depends upon origin status; for example origins and destinations are equally important among those with farm origins but origin status is more central than destination status among those with higher white-collar origins. Also the impact of the explanatory variables on fertility interacts with origin status.

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