An experimental study of the centipede game
We report on an experiment in which individuals play a version of the centipede game. In this game, two players alternately get a chance to take the larger portion of a continually escalating pile of money. As soon as one person takes, the game ends with that player getting the larger portion of the pile, and the other player getting the smaller portion. If one views the experiment as a complete information game, all standard game theoretic equilibrium concepts predict the first mover should take the large pile on the first round. The experimental results show that this does not occur. An alternative explanation for the data can be given if we reconsider the game as a game of incomplete information in which there is some uncertainty over the payoff functions of the players. In particular, if the subjects believe there is some small likelihood that the opponent is an altruist, then in the equilibrium of this incomplete information game, players adopt mixed strategies in the early rounds of the experiment, with the probability of taking increasing as the pile gets larger. We investigate how well a version of this model explains the data observed in the centipede experiments.
Recombination and the population structures of bacterial pathogens.
The population structures of bacterial species are complex and often controversial. To a large extent, this is due to uncertainty about the frequency and impact of recombination in bacteria. The existence of clones within bacterial populations, and of linkage disequilibrium between alleles at different loci, is often cited as evidence for low rates of recombination. However, clones and linkage disequilibrium are almost inevitable in species that divide by binary fission and can be present in populations where recombination is frequent. In recent years, it has become possible to directly compare rates of recombination in different species. These studies indicate that in many bacterial species, including Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Staphylococcus aureus, evolutionary change at neutral (housekeeping) loci is more likely to occur by recombination than mutation and can result in the elimination of any deep-rooted phylogenetic signal. In such species, the long-term evolution of the population is dominated by recombination, but this does not occur at a sufficiently high frequency to prevent the emergence of adaptive clones, although these are relatively short-lived and rapidly diversify.
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