An experimental study of the centipede game
We report on an experiment in which individuals play a version of the centipede game. In this game, two players alternately get a chance to take the larger portion of a continually escalating pile of money. As soon as one person takes, the game ends with that player getting the larger portion of the pile, and the other player getting the smaller portion. If one views the experiment as a complete information game, all standard game theoretic equilibrium concepts predict the first mover should take the large pile on the first round. The experimental results show that this does not occur. An alternative explanation for the data can be given if we reconsider the game as a game of incomplete information in which there is some uncertainty over the payoff functions of the players. In particular, if the subjects believe there is some small likelihood that the opponent is an altruist, then in the equilibrium of this incomplete information game, players adopt mixed strategies in the early rounds of the experiment, with the probability of taking increasing as the pile gets larger. We investigate how well a version of this model explains the data observed in the centipede experiments.
Appraising and Amending Theories: The Strategy of Lakatosian Defense and Two Principles that Warrant It
In social science, everything is somewhat correlated with everything (“crud factor”), so whether H0 is refuted depends solely on statistical power. In psychology, the directional counternull of interest, H*, is not equivalent to the substantive theory T, there being many plausible alternative explanations of a mere directional trend (weak use of significance tests). Testing against a predicted point value (the strong use of significant tests) can discorroborate T by refuting H*. If used thus to abandon T forthwith, it is too strong, not allowing for theoretical verisimilitude as distinguished from truth. Defense and amendment of an apparently falsified T are appropriate strategies only when T has accumulated a good track record (“money in the bank”) by making successful or near-miss predictions of low prior probability (Salmon’s “damn strange coincidences”). Two rough indexes are proposed for numerifying the track record, by considering jointly how intolerant (risky) and how close (accurate) are its predictions.
Using Choice Experiments for Non-Market Valuation
This paper provides the latest research developments in the method of choice experiments applied to valuation of non-market goods. Choice experiments, along with the, by now, well-known contingent valuation method, are very important tools for valuing non-market goods and the results are used in both cost-benefit analyses and litigations related to damage assessments. The paper should provide the reader with both the means to carry out a choice experiment and to conduct a detailed critical analysis of its performance in order to give informed advice about the results. A discussion of the underlying economic model of choice experiments is incorporated, as well as a presentation of econometric models consistent with economic theory. Furthermore, a detailed discussion on the development of a choice experiment is provided, which in particular focuses on the design of the experiment and tests of validity. Finally, a discussion on different ways to calculate welfare effects is presented.
time series decision making reinforcement learning mathematical model decision support system embedded system magnetic resonance magnetic resonance imaging united kingdom breast cancer developing country resonance imaging motion planning confidence interval humanoid robot social science experimental design linear algebra nash equilibrium data assimilation standard deviation black box autoregressive model functional magnetic resonance interest rate exchange rate design of experiments process capability prostate cancer fuzzy environment functional magnetic triangular fuzzy number rate model citizen science scientific publication open-source software choice behavior econometric model programming paradigm ordinary least square business cycle prefrontal cortex tumor cell process capability indice evaluation procedure capability indice risk aversion breast cancer patient hearing impairment mental disorder digital object identifier humanoid robotic demand function federal reserve trade credit aggregate datum sample variance major depressive disorder monetary policy entropy maximization major depressive circulating tumor cell circulating tumor mobile money cross-sectional datum marginal model rejection sampling policy rule cell nucleu financial cost mood disorder interpretation proces real interest rate trust game institutional investor nucleus accumben learning disorder money demand metastatic breast accidental fall positive theory genetic heterogeneity review [publication type] word list by frequency neuritis, autoimmune, experimental projections and prediction occur (action) departure - action job stream value (ethics) exhibits as topic reuse (action) contain (action) cellular targeting null value advance directive - proxy benchmark (computing) collections (publication) coping behavior deny (action) hearing loss, high-frequency revision procedure rem sleep behavior disorder codependency (psychology) pervasive informatic amygdaloid structure sensorineural hearing loss (disorder) norm (social) contingency (philosophy) behaviorial habit choose (action) persistence (computer science) eighty nine neoplasm metastasi columbia (supercomputer) expectation–maximization algorithm relocation of home or business manufactured supply mediator brand of benfluorex hydrochloride public-private sector partnership academia (organization) document completion status - documented entity–relationship model sex characteristic uc browser mike lesser the australian nat friedman lars bak (computer programmer) research support as topic lars gene substance-related disorder expected utility hypothesi fama im economic complexity index metastatic carcinoma conflict (psychology) rule (guideline) kind of quantity - equilibrium john d. wiley baseline (configuration management) transaction counts and value totals - contract contract agreement standards characteristic file spanning ephrin type-b receptor 1, human published comment copy (object) arabic numeral 0 united state