Security of electricity supply in 2030

The stability and well-operation of a future electricity grid which includes numerous components of smart grid technology is becoming much more dependent on the correct operation of the supporting IT, and in this respect may become more attractive to malicious attacks. To understand the vulnerabilities, interdependencies between the electrical distribution grid and IT components as well as critical infrastructures such as water supply and health care will be simulated and evaluated. Aim of the research activity is to develop a holistic analysis framework to quantify and evaluate requirements and design decisions of the many players in such complex infrastructures. Planning methods and tools will be introduced that provide guidance at the designtime of smart grid infrastructures, allowing for a high level of security even under unfavorable conditions. This paper presents the framework focusing on the methods envisaged and an application scenario dealing with potential threats to and impact of a large-scale and longer-lasting power outage.

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