EXCHANGEABILITY, PREDICTIVE DISTRIBUTIONS AND PARAMETRIC MODELS*

SUMMARY. In the general setting of predictive inference, when observations are exchangeable and take values in a Polish space, conditions are stated in order that parametric models turn out to be limiting forms of predictive distributions and parameters are limiting forms of suitable predictive sufficient statistics. The treatment is completed by a necessary and sufficient condition in order that a sequence of predictive distributions may be consistent with an exchangeable distribution. Moreover, main properties of predictive sufficiency are revisited in the general setting described above.

[1]  L. Ladelli,et al.  On mixtures of distributions of Markov chains , 2002 .

[2]  S. Walker,et al.  A characterisation of Polya tree distributions , 1997 .

[3]  F. Y. Edgeworth,et al.  The theory of statistics , 1996 .

[4]  J. Hoffmann-jorgensen,et al.  Probability with a View Toward Statistics , 1994 .

[5]  P. Muliere,et al.  Exchangeability, predictive sufficiency and Bayesian bootstrap , 1992 .

[6]  W. Sudderth,et al.  Polya Trees and Random Distributions , 1992 .

[7]  M. Lavine More Aspects of Polya Tree Distributions for Statistical Modelling , 1992 .

[8]  Albert Y. Lo,et al.  A characterization of the Dirichlet process , 1991 .

[9]  D. Freedman,et al.  Cauchy's equation and de Finetti's theorem , 1990 .

[10]  S. Lauritzen Extremal Families and Systems of Sufficient Statistics , 1988 .

[11]  D. Aldous Exchangeability and related topics , 1985 .

[12]  O. Kallenberg Random Measures , 1983 .

[13]  G. Letta Sulla nozione di riassunto esaustivo , 1981 .

[14]  Sul ruolo dei riassunti esaustivi ai fini della previsione in contesto bayesiano (1a parte) , 1980 .

[15]  D. Freedman,et al.  De Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains , 1980 .

[16]  P. Diaconis,et al.  Conjugate Priors for Exponential Families , 1979 .

[17]  T. Ferguson A Bayesian Analysis of Some Nonparametric Problems , 1973 .

[18]  P. Billingsley,et al.  Convergence of Probability Measures , 1970, The Mathematical Gazette.

[19]  K. Parthasarathy,et al.  Probability measures on metric spaces , 1967 .

[20]  W. V. Zwet,et al.  On Mixtures of Distributions , 1966 .

[21]  J. Neveu Bases mathématiques du calcul des probabilités , 1966 .

[22]  P. Meyer,et al.  Probabilités et potentiel , 1966 .

[23]  E. A. Parent MIXTURES OF DISTRIBUTIONS , 1962 .

[24]  B. D. Finetti La prévision : ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives , 1937 .