Electric Vehicles: Literature review of technology costs and carbon emissions

1. SUMMARY The European new vehicle CO2 regulat ion (with a mandatory target value of 95 grams of CO2 per kilometer by 2021 for passenger cars) is currently in the process of being extended to 2025. In this context, one of the key questions is at what point a significant uptake of the electric vehicle market is to be expected. In order to help inform this debate about how electric vehicle technology could fit in a lower-carbon 2020–2030 new vehicle fleet in Europe, this paper focuses on collecting, analyzing, and aggregating the avai lable research literature on the underlying technology costs and carbon emissions. In terms of technologies, this paper concentrates on the three electric propulsion systems: battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCEVs). The collected cost data is used to estimate the technology cost for automotive l ithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries and fuel cells. The cost of battery packs for BEVs declined to an estimated €250 per kWh for industry leaders in 2015. Further cost reductions down to as low as €130–€180 per kWh are anticipated in the 2020–25 time frame. The costs of fuel cell systems are also expected to decrease considerably, but cost estimates are highly uncertain.

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