Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

[1]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[2]  R. Djalante.  Key assessments from the IPCC special report on global warming of 1.5 °C and the implications for the Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction , 2019, Progress in Disaster Science.

[3]  Joachim Denzler,et al.  Deep learning and process understanding for data-driven Earth system science , 2019, Nature.

[4]  Joachim Denzler,et al.  Detecting Regions of Maximal Divergence for Spatio-Temporal Anomaly Detection , 2018, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[5]  A. Pitman,et al.  Understanding and Reducing Future Uncertainty in Midlatitude Daily Heat Extremes Via Land Surface Feedback Constraints , 2018, Geophysical Research Letters.

[6]  Robert Buttrick,et al.  The project framework , 2018, The Programme and Portfolio Workout.

[7]  Robert Pincus,et al.  ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing , 2018, Earth System Dynamics.

[8]  D. Stone,et al.  Calibrating Climate Model Ensembles for Assessing Extremes in a Changing Climate , 2018, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

[9]  E. Fischer,et al.  Prospects and Caveats of Weighting Climate Models for Summer Maximum Temperature Projections Over North America , 2018 .

[10]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Future climate risk from compound events , 2018, Nature Climate Change.

[11]  Michel Crucifix,et al.  The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan , 2018 .

[12]  P. Forster,et al.  An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability , 2018, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

[13]  P. Cox,et al.  Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability , 2018, Nature.

[14]  Michel Crucifix,et al.  The PMIP 4 contribution to CMIP 6 – Part 1 : Overview and overarching analysis plan , 2018 .

[15]  T. Shepherd,et al.  Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations , 2017 .

[16]  S. Xie,et al.  Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall. , 2017 .

[17]  S. Hagemann,et al.  Process-level improvements in CMIP5 models and their impact on tropical variability, the Southern Ocean, and monsoons , 2017 .

[18]  G. Tselioudis,et al.  CMIP5 models' shortwave cloud radiative response and climate sensitivity linked to the climatological Hadley cell extent , 2017, Geophysical research letters.

[19]  G. Mann,et al.  Strong constraints on aerosol–cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions , 2017, Nature.

[20]  P. Cox,et al.  Emergent constraints on projections of declining primary production in the tropical oceans , 2017 .

[21]  P. Cox,et al.  An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming , 2017 .

[22]  Karsten Lehmann,et al.  Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties , 2017 .

[23]  Andrew Gettelman,et al.  The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning , 2017 .

[24]  A. Ruane,et al.  Selection of a representative subset of global climate models that captures the profile of regional changes for integrated climate impacts assessment , 2017 .

[25]  Ruth Lorenz,et al.  A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence , 2017 .

[26]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  CMIP5 Scientific Gaps and Recommendations for CMIP6 , 2017 .

[27]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  THE WCRP CMIP 3 MULTIMODEL DATASET A New Era in Climate Change Research , 2017 .

[28]  R. Knutti,et al.  Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments , 2016 .

[29]  Jian Lu,et al.  High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6 , 2016 .

[30]  Michel Rixen,et al.  WCRP COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX): A diagnostic MIP for CMIP6 , 2016 .

[31]  Eric Guilyardi,et al.  Towards improved and more routine Earth system model evaluation in CMIP , 2016 .

[32]  P. Cox,et al.  Projected land photosynthesis constrained by changes in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 , 2016, Nature.

[33]  Keywan Riahi,et al.  The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB V1.0) Contribution to CMIP6 , 2016 .

[34]  T. Schneider,et al.  Constraints on Climate Sensitivity from Space-Based Measurements of Low-Cloud Reflection , 2016 .

[35]  G. Meehl,et al.  Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation , 2016, Nature Communications.

[36]  A. Pier Siebesma,et al.  The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6. , 2016 .

[37]  Charles Doutriaux,et al.  A More Powerful Reality Test for Climate Models , 2016 .

[38]  Ed Hawkins,et al.  Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown , 2016 .

[39]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  Constraining Future Summer Austral Jet Stream Positions in the CMIP5 Ensemble by Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Regression* , 2016 .

[40]  M. Webb,et al.  Robustness, uncertainties, and emergent constraints in the radiative responses of stratocumulus cloud regimes to future warming , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[41]  F. Otto,et al.  Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains like those of storm Desmond in the UK – an event attribution study in near-real time , 2015 .

[42]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization , 2015 .

[43]  M. Zelinka,et al.  An observational radiative constraint on hydrologic cycle intensification , 2015, Nature.

[44]  S. Klein,et al.  Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks , 2015, Current Climate Change Reports.

[45]  Jürgen Kurths,et al.  Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems , 2015, Nature Communications.

[46]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  Evolving Obs4MIPs to Support Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) , 2015 .

[47]  Simon Read,et al.  ESMValTool (v1.0) – a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP , 2015 .

[48]  R. Greatbatch,et al.  Decadal hindcasts initialized using observed surface wind stress: Evaluation and prediction out to 2024 , 2015 .

[49]  Reto Knutti,et al.  A Representative Democracy to Reduce Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble , 2015 .

[50]  Reto Knutti,et al.  Addressing interdependency in a multimodel ensemble by interpolation of model properties , 2015 .

[51]  Thomas C. Peterson,et al.  Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus , 2015, Science.

[52]  B. Tian.  Spread of model climate sensitivity linked to double‐Intertropical Convergence Zone bias , 2015 .

[53]  I. Richter.  Climate model biases in the eastern tropical oceans: causes, impacts and ways forward , 2015 .

[54]  Steve Easterbrook,et al.  The software architecture of climate models: a graphical comparison of CMIP5 and EMICAR5 configurations , 2015 .

[55]  C. Bishop,et al.  Climate Model Dependence and the Ensemble Dependence Transformation of CMIP Projections , 2015 .

[56]  A. Ruane,et al.  Climate forcing datasets for agricultural modeling: Merged products for gap-filling and historical climate series estimation , 2015 .

[57]  Constantine Dovrolis,et al.  ENSO in CMIP5 simulations: network connectivity from the recent past to the twenty-third century , 2015, Climate Dynamics.

[58]  C. Deser,et al.  Evaluating Modes of Variability in Climate Models , 2014 .

[59]  J. Dufresne,et al.  Parameterization of convective transport in the boundary layer and its impact on the representation of the diurnal cycle of wind and dust emissions , 2014 .

[60]  G. Meehl,et al.  Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming , 2014 .

[61]  Henrik Madsen,et al.  A Bayesian Approach for Uncertainty Quantification of Extreme Precipitation Projections Including Climate Model Interdependency and Nonstationary Bias , 2014 .

[62]  C. Müller,et al.  The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison: data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0) , 2014 .

[63]  P. Cox,et al.  Emergent constraints on climate‐carbon cycle feedbacks in the CMIP5 Earth system models , 2014 .

[64]  B. Santer,et al.  Statistical significance of climate sensitivity predictors obtained by data mining , 2014 .

[65]  C. Mechoso,et al.  A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases , 2014 .

[66]  Carl A. Mears,et al.  Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature , 2014 .

[67]  D. Hartmann,et al.  The Atmospheric Energy Constraint on Global-Mean Precipitation Change , 2014 .

[68]  S. Bony,et al.  Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing , 2014, Nature.

[69]  F. Piontek,et al.  The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[70]  J. Randerson,et al.  Causes and implications of persistent atmospheric carbon dioxide biases in Earth System Models , 2013 .

[71]  D. Maraun,et al.  Improving Antarctic Total Ozone Projections by a Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Ensemble Regression , 2013 .

[72]  G. Meehl,et al.  Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation , 2013 .

[73]  Francis W. Zwiers,et al.  Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years , 2013 .

[74]  S. Bony,et al.  What Are Climate Models Missing? , 2013, Science.

[75]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate , 2013 .

[76]  P. Cox,et al.  Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability , 2013, Nature.

[77]  T. Stocker,et al.  SBSTA-IPCC Special Event Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[78]  C. Bishop,et al.  Climate model dependence and the replicate Earth paradigm , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[79]  S. Bony,et al.  Interpretation of the positive low-cloud feedback predicted by a climate model under global warming , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[80]  M. Holland,et al.  Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice , 2012 .

[81]  Philippe Ciais,et al.  A framework for benchmarking land models , 2012 .

[82]  P. O’Gorman.  Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change , 2012 .

[83]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[84]  D. Klocke,et al.  Tuning the climate of a global model , 2012 .

[85]  Surendra Byna,et al.  TECA: A Parallel Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis , 2012, ICCS.

[86]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data , 2011 .

[87]  John M. Haynes,et al.  COSP: Satellite simulation software for model assessment , 2011 .

[88]  Thomas Reichler,et al.  On the Effective Number of Climate Models , 2011 .

[89]  R. Knutti,et al.  Climate model genealogy , 2011 .

[90]  D. Bernie,et al.  Assessing uncertainty in estimates of atmospheric temperature changes from MSU and AMSU using a Monte‐Carlo estimation technique , 2011 .

[91]  Jouni Räisänen,et al.  Weighting of model results for improving best estimates of climate change , 2010 .

[92]  E. Gerber,et al.  Intermodel variability of the poleward shift of the austral jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations linked to biases in 20th century climatology , 2010 .

[93]  Reto Knutti,et al.  The end of model democracy? , 2010 .

[94]  B. Santer,et al.  Incorporating model quality information in climate change detection and attribution studies , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[95]  V. Eyring,et al.  Quantitative performance metrics for stratospheric-resolving chemistry-climate models , 2008 .

[96]  Michael F. Wehner,et al.  Relationship between temperature and precipitable water changes over tropical oceans , 2007 .

[97]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  THE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research , 2007 .

[98]  A. Hall,et al.  What Controls the Strength of Snow-Albedo Feedback? , 2007 .

[99]  A New Era in Climate Change Research , 2007 .

[100]  A. Hall,et al.  Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change , 2006 .

[101]  F. Wentz,et al.  The Effect of Diurnal Correction on Satellite-Derived Lower Tropospheric Temperature , 2005, Science.

[102]  M. Allen,et al.  Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle , 2002, Nature.

[103]  G. Meehl,et al.  The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) , 2000 .

[104]  A. Arakawa,et al.  Peruvian stratus clouds and the tropical Pacific circulation , 1996 .

[105]  Stevens,et al.  CMIP5 Scientific Gaps and Recommendations for CMIP6 , 2017 .