Coordination and Information in Critical Mass Games: An Experimental Study

We present experimental results on a repeated coordination game with Pareto-ranked equilibria in which a payoff from choosing an action is positive only if a critical mass of players choose that action. We design a baseline version of the game in which payoffs remain constant for values above the critical mass, and an increasing returns version in which payoffs keep increasing for values above the critical mass. We test the predictive power of security and payoff-dominance under different information treatments. Our results show that convergence to the payoff-dominant equilibrium is the modal limit outcome when players have full information about others' previous round choices, while this outcome never occurs in the remaining treatments. The paths of play in some groups reveal a tacit dynamic coordination by which groups converge to the efficient equilibrium in a step-like manner. Moreover, the frequency and speed of convergence to the payoff-dominant equilibrium are higher, ceteris paribus, when increasing returns are present. Finally, successful coordination seems to crucially depend on players' willingness to signal to others the choice of the action supporting the efficient equilibrium.

[1]  R. Selten,et al.  End behavior in sequences of finite prisoner's dilemma supergames , 1986 .

[2]  J. Kagel,et al.  Handbook of Experimental Economics , 1997 .

[3]  A. Roth,et al.  Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria , 1998 .

[4]  Martin Sefton,et al.  Repetition and signalling: Experimental evidence from games with efficient equilibria , 2001 .

[5]  Teck-Hua Ho,et al.  Sophisticated Experience-Weighted Attraction Learning and Strategic Teaching in Repeated Games , 2002, J. Econ. Theory.

[6]  John Duffy,et al.  Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? An Experimental Comparison of Observation and Cheap Talk , 2000, Games Econ. Behav..

[7]  C. Shapiro,et al.  Technology Adoption in the Presence of Network Externalities , 1986, Journal of Political Economy.

[8]  A. Rapoport,et al.  Coordination, “Magic,” and Reinforcement Learning in a Market Entry Game , 1998 .

[9]  P. David,et al.  The Economics Of Compatibility Standards: An Introduction To Recent Research 1 , 1990 .

[10]  Roland Soong,et al.  Threshold models of interpersonal effects in consumer demand , 1986 .

[11]  Jacob K. Goeree,et al.  An experimental study of costly coordination , 2005, Games Econ. Behav..

[12]  J. Huyck,et al.  Asset Markets as an Equilibrium Selection Mechanism: Coordination Failure, Game Form Auctions, and Tacit Communication , 1993 .

[13]  D. Fudenberg,et al.  The Theory of Learning in Games , 1998 .

[14]  Colin Camerer,et al.  Sophisticated EWA Learning and Strategic Teaching in Repeated Games , 2000 .

[15]  J. Huyck,et al.  Strategic Uncertainty, Equilibrium Selection, and Coordination Failure in Average Opinion Games , 1991 .

[16]  J. Huyck,et al.  Tacit Coordination Games, Strategic Uncertainty, and Coordination Failure , 1990 .

[17]  Charles A. Holt,et al.  Ten Little Treasures of Game Theory and Ten Intuitive Contradictions , 2001 .

[18]  John Duffy,et al.  Learning, information, and sorting in market entry games: theory and evidence , 2005, Games Econ. Behav..

[19]  T. Schelling,et al.  The Strategy of Conflict. , 1961 .

[20]  Rosemarie Nagel,et al.  The Effect of Intergroup Competition on Group Coordination: An Experimental Study , 1999, Games Econ. Behav..

[21]  V. Crawford An “evolutionary” interpretation of Van Huyck, Battalio, and Beil's experimental results on coordination , 1991 .

[22]  Bernice W. Polemis Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences , 1959 .

[23]  J. Ledyard Public Goods: A Survey of Experimental Research , 1994 .

[24]  John Duffy,et al.  Does observation of others affect learning in strategic environments? An experimental study , 1999, Int. J. Game Theory.

[25]  Nick Feltovich Nonparametric Tests of Differences in Medians: Comparison of the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney and Robust Rank-Order Tests , 2003 .

[26]  R. Nagel,et al.  Experimental results on ultimatum games with incomplete information , 1993 .

[27]  T. Schelling Micromotives and Macrobehavior , 1978 .

[28]  Colin Camerer,et al.  Experience‐weighted Attraction Learning in Normal Form Games , 1999 .

[29]  Karl-Martin Ehrhart,et al.  Coordination and local interaction: Experimental evidence , 1998 .

[30]  Drew Fudenberg,et al.  Learning in Games , 1998 .

[31]  Siegfried K. Berninghaus,et al.  Time horizon and equilibrium selection in tacit coordination games: Experimental results , 1998 .

[32]  L. Samuelson,et al.  Optimization Incentives and Coordination Failure in Laboratory Stag Hunt Games , 2001 .

[33]  W. Arthur,et al.  Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy , 1996 .

[34]  Joseph Farrell,et al.  Installed base and compatibility : innovation, product preannouncements and predation , 1986 .