A normative approach for identifying decision propagation paths in complex systems

© 2018 Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture. In real-world, making the right decision at the right time is very challenging. Additional complexity is related to the fact that, a change in one part may propagate across multiple subsystems and therefore, it is very difficult to predict how decisions behave. To respond this need, this paper contributes a conceptual framework to present a novel perspective on modelling decisions, so-called Decision Propagation System-DPS. It is an intelligent approach to reflect how organisational dynamics and information dependencies can affect decision propagations, thus helping make Smart decisions.

[1]  Deepak Kumar,et al.  Product Attribute Function Deployment (PAFD) for decision-based conceptual design , 2006 .

[2]  Mohammad Hassannezhad Model-Based Support for Management of Engineering Design Processes , 2015 .

[3]  John E. Renaud,et al.  Interactive Multiobjective Optimization Design Strategy for Decision Based Design , 2001 .

[4]  Nelly Bencomo,et al.  Supporting Decision-Making for Self-Adaptive Systems: From Goal Models to Dynamic Decision Networks , 2013, REFSQ.

[5]  Charles N. Calvano,et al.  Systems engineering in an age of complexity , 2004 .

[6]  Jitesh H. Panchal,et al.  Incorporating design outsourcing decisions within the design of collaborative design processes , 2009, Comput. Ind..

[7]  Zissimos P. Mourelatos,et al.  A New Method for Making Design Decisions: Decision Topologies , 2015 .

[8]  Gerald L. Moeller,et al.  Operations Planning with VERT , 1981, Oper. Res..

[9]  Adel M. Alimi,et al.  Dynamic Decision Support System Based on Bayesian Networks Application to fight against the Nosocomial Infections , 2012, ArXiv.

[10]  Karl T. Ulrich,et al.  Special Issue on Design and Development: Product Development Decisions: A Review of the Literature , 2001, Manag. Sci..

[11]  Otman A. Basir,et al.  An Intelligent Expert Systems' Approach to Layout Decision Analysis and Design under Uncertainty , 2008, Intelligent Decision Making: An AI-Based Approach.

[12]  Xiaoyu Gu,et al.  Decision-Based Collaborative Optimization , 2002 .

[13]  Jitesh H. Panchal,et al.  Understanding Design Decisions Under Competition Using Games With Information Acquisition and a Behavioral Experiment , 2017 .

[14]  Christiaan J. J. Paredis,et al.  Managing Design Process Complexity: A Value-of-Information Based Approach for Scale and Decision Decoupling , 2007, DAC 2007.

[15]  P. John Clarkson,et al.  Dynamic modelling of relationships in complex service design systems , 2017 .

[16]  Olivier L. de Weck,et al.  Time‐expanded decision networks: A framework for designing evolvable complex systems , 2007, Syst. Eng..

[17]  Paul A. Strassmann,et al.  Stochastic Decision Trees for the Analysis of Investment Decisions , 1965 .

[18]  F. Ameri,et al.  An Entropic Method for Sequencing Discrete Design Decisions , 2010 .

[19]  Alaa Chateauneuf,et al.  Incorporating Bayesian Networks in Markov Decision Processes , 2013 .

[20]  Marie-Lise Moullec,et al.  Toward System Architecture Generation and Performances Assessment Under Uncertainty Using Bayesian Networks , 2013 .

[21]  David G. Ullman,et al.  What to do next: Using problem status to determine the course of action , 1997 .

[22]  Dorin Comaniciu,et al.  Deep Decision Network for Multi-class Image Classification , 2016, 2016 IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR).

[23]  Duck Young Kim,et al.  CO 2 DE: a decision support system for collaborative design , 2010 .

[24]  Christiaan J. J. Paredis,et al.  An Investigation Into the Decision Analysis of Design Process Decisions , 2010 .

[25]  Zoubin Ghahramani,et al.  Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence , 2015, Nature.

[26]  Kemper Lewis,et al.  Collaborative, sequential, and isolated decisions in design , 1997 .

[27]  Farrokh Mistree,et al.  Designing Design Processes in Decision-Based Concurrent Engineering , 1991 .

[28]  Yan Jin,et al.  An Agent-Based Decision Network for Concurrent Engineering Design , 2001, Concurr. Eng. Res. Appl..

[29]  Sandro Wartzack,et al.  A METHODICAL APPROACH TO MODEL AND MAP INTERCONNECTED DECISION MAKING SITUATIONS AND THEIR CONSEQUENCES , 2015 .

[30]  Wallace B. S. Crowston,et al.  Decision CPM: A Method for Simultaneous Planning, Scheduling, and Control of Projects , 1967, Oper. Res..

[31]  Sotiris B. Kotsiantis,et al.  Decision trees: a recent overview , 2011, Artificial Intelligence Review.

[32]  Farrokh Mistree,et al.  PDSIDES: A Knowledge-Based Platform for Decision Support in the Design of Engineering Systems , 2017 .

[33]  D. L. Marples,et al.  THE DECISIONS OF ENGINEERING DESIGN , 1961, IRE Transactions on Engineering Management.

[34]  Ross D. Shachter Decisions and Dependence in Influence Diagrams , 2016, Probabilistic Graphical Models.

[35]  J. Sobieski Recent Experiences in Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization, part 2 , 1984 .

[36]  Z. Ayağ,et al.  An analytic network process-based approach to concept evaluation in a new product development environment , 2007 .

[37]  Francesco Leali,et al.  A review on decision-making methods in engineering design for the automotive industry , 2017 .

[38]  Christiaan J. J. Paredis,et al.  The Value of Using Imprecise Probabilities in Engineering Design , 2006 .