Are counter-terrorism strategies effective? The results of the Campbell systematic review on counter-terrorism evaluation research

The events of September 11th have led to massive increases in personal, commercial, and governmental expenditures on anti-terrorism strategies, as well as a proliferation of programs designed to fight terrorism. These increases in spending and program development have focused attention on the most significant and central policy question related to these interventions: Are these programs effective? To explore this question, this study reports the results of a Campbell Collaboration systematic review on evaluation research of counter-terrorism strategies. Not only did we discover an almost complete absence of evaluation research on counter-terrorism interventions, but from those evaluations that we could find, it appears that some interventions either did not achieve the outcomes sought or sometimes increased the likelihood of terrorism occurring. The findings dramatically emphasize the need for government leaders, policy makers, researchers, and funding agencies to support both outcome evaluations of these programs as well as efforts to develop an infrastructure to foster counter-terrorism evaluation research.

[1]  Alberto Abadie,et al.  The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case-Control Study for the Basque Country , 2001 .

[2]  T. Jefferson,et al.  Vaccines for preventing anthrax. , 1998, The Cochrane database of systematic reviews.

[3]  Alex P. Schmid,et al.  Political Terrorism: A New Guide to Actors, Authors, Concepts, Data Bases, Theories, and Literature , 1984 .

[4]  Ariel Merari,et al.  Academic research and government policy on terrorism , 1991 .

[5]  D. Stein,et al.  Pharmacotherapy for posttraumatic stress disorder. , 2000, The Cochrane database of systematic reviews.

[6]  Lawrence W. Sherman,et al.  Policing Domestic Violence: Experiments and Dilemmas , 1992 .

[7]  Paul Wilkinson,et al.  Terrorism and the Liberal State , 1977 .

[8]  John A. C. Conybeare,et al.  Retaliating against Terrorism: Rational Expectations and the Optimality of Rules versus Discretion , 1994 .

[9]  Paul Guinnessy Paul Guinnessy Hubble successor takes shape , 2002 .

[10]  C. McCauley Terrorism Research and Public Policy , 1991 .

[11]  David P. Farrington,et al.  Closed-Circuit Television Surveillance , 2007 .

[12]  Brandon C. Welsh,et al.  Evidence-Based Crime Prevention , 2002 .

[13]  David P. Farrington,et al.  Preventing Crime: What Works for Children, Offenders, Victims and Places , 2007 .

[14]  R. Boruch,et al.  The Importance of Randomized Field Trials , 2000 .

[15]  T. Cook,et al.  Quasi-experimentation: Design & analysis issues for field settings , 1979 .

[16]  Andrew Silke,et al.  Research on Terrorism: Trends, Achievements and Failures , 2003 .

[17]  S Rose,et al.  Psychological debriefing for preventing post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). , 2002, The Cochrane database of systematic reviews.

[18]  David P. Farrington,et al.  Methodological Quality Standards for Evaluation Research , 2003 .

[19]  David P. Farrington,et al.  The Campbell Collaboration Crime and Justice Group , 2001 .

[20]  Walter Enders,et al.  UN Conventions, Technology and Retaliation in the Fight Against Terrorism: An Econometric Evaluation , 1990 .

[21]  Carlos Pestana Barros,et al.  An intervention analysis of terrorism: The spanish eta case , 2003 .

[22]  Tore Bj√∏rgo,et al.  Root Causes of Terrorism : Myths, Reality and Ways Forward , 2005 .

[23]  Jon Cauley,et al.  Intervention Policy Analysis of Skyjackings and Other Terrorist Incidents , 1988 .

[24]  W. Landes,et al.  An Economic Study of U.S. Aircraft Hijacking, 1960-1976 , 1977 .

[25]  D. Stein,et al.  Pharmacotherapy for post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). , 2006, The Cochrane database of systematic reviews.

[26]  William M. Landes,et al.  An Economic Study of U. S. Aircraft Hijacking, 1961-1976 , 1978, The Journal of Law and Economics.

[27]  Military deterrence of international terrorism: An evaluation of operation El Dorado Canyon , 1997 .

[28]  Walter Enders,et al.  The Effectiveness of Antiterrorism Policies: A Vector-Autoregression-Intervention Analysis , 1993, American Political Science Review.

[29]  Peter Reuter,et al.  Preventing Crime: What Works, What Doesn't, What's Promising. Research in Brief. National Institute of Justice. , 1998 .

[30]  Lawrence F. Katz,et al.  The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018 , 2005 .

[31]  Reuben Miller,et al.  The literature of terrorism , 1988 .

[32]  Mihalis Halkides How not to study terrorism , 1995 .

[33]  J. Bisson,et al.  Psychological treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). , 2007, The Cochrane database of systematic reviews.

[34]  T. Sandler,et al.  Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening? , 2000 .

[35]  Martha Crenshaw,et al.  Current research on terrorism: The academic perspective , 1992 .

[36]  W. Shadish,et al.  Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Generalized Causal Inference , 2001 .

[37]  Mark W. Lipsey,et al.  Practical Meta-Analysis , 2000 .

[38]  B. Hoffman Current research on terrorism and low‐intensity conflict , 1992 .