Daily reservoir inflow forecasting using fuzzy inference systems

This paper presents the application of a methodology for daily reservoir inflow forecasting in Brazilian hydroelectric plants. The methodology is based on Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) and the technique used for adjusting of the model parameters is an offline version of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. In order to automate the application of the methodology and facilitate the analysis of the results, a tool that allows managing streamflow forecasting studies and visualizing their information in graphical form was developed. A case study was applied to the data from three Brazilian hydroelectric plants whose operation is under the coordination of the Electric System National Operator. They are located in the Grande basin, a part of the Parana basin with two main rivers: the Grande and the Pardo. The benefits of the model are analyzed using statistics calculations, such as: root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute error and mass curve coefficient. Besides that, graphics that compare the registered and predicted streamflow are presented. The results show an adequate performance of the model, leading to a promising alternative for daily streamflow forecasting.

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