Do prior online course outcomes provide more information than G.P.A. alone in predicting subsequent online course grades and retention? An observational study at an urban community college

In this study, prior online course outcomes and pre-course enrollment G.P.A. were used as predictors of subsequent online course outcomes, and the interaction between these two factors was assessed in order to determine the extent to which students with similar G.P.A.'s but with different prior online course outcomes may differ in their likelihood of successfully completing a subsequent online course. This study used a sample of 962 students who took an online course at a large urban community college from 2004 to 2010. Results indicate that prior online course experience is a very significant predictor of successful completion of subsequent online courses, even more so than G.P.A. For students with no prior online course experience, G.P.A. was a good predictor of future online course outcomes; but for students with previous online course experience prior online course outcomes was a more significant predictor of future online course grades and retention than G.P.A. We explore how prior online outcomes and GPA predict future online outcomes.Prior online course outcomes predict future online outcomes better than GPA.For a first-time online student, success online was strongly correlated with GPA.Students with prior online success, regardless of GPA, continued to succeed online.Unsuccessful online students continued to struggle online, regardless of GPA.

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