Seltsames Verhalten nichtlinearer demographischer Prozesse

Ausgangspunkt der folgenden Arbeit ist die Frage, ob bzw. inwieweit die moderne Chaosforschung in der Demographie angewendet werden kann. Dazu vorab eine Bemerkung: Bei Gestaltung eines derartigen Einblickes bewegen sich die Autoren zwischen den Klippen mathematischer Unexaktheit einerseits und der Gefahr narrativer Geschwatzigkeit auf der anderen Seite. Es gehort eine Portion Unverfrorenheit dazu, uber ein mathematisch tiefes Gebiet mit nicht einfachen Methoden — um ein solches handelt es sich in der Theorie nichtlinearer dynamischer Systeme — nahezu rein verbal zu berichten2. Neben der Gefahr der Scharlatanerie ist auch dem missionarischen Eifer und Totalitatsanspruch mancher Chaosforscher zu begegnen. Hier gilt es also, zwischen Scylla und Charibdis zu manovrieren. Oder weniger prosaisch ausgedruckt: Wenn man von beiden Seiten in etwa gleichem Ausmas kritisiert wird, so besteht die Chance, das man auf einem neuartigen und seltsamen Ozean einen einigermasen zielfuhrenden Kurs eingeschlagen hat.

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