Analysis of Effects of Uncertainty of Simulating Model and Parameters Estimated on Precision of Design Flood Control Storage

Assuming that the population model of flood stochastic process is known, the effects of uncertainty of simulating model and parameters estimated on the precision of design flood control storage is preliminarily analysed by Monte Carlo method.Two simulation models are considered in the paper: one is Disaggregation Model, and the other is seasonal AR(1) model.Two parameter estimation methods—moment method and probability weighted moment method are used to estimate the model parameters.The unbiasness and efficiency of design flood control storage are consided as indices of precision.Some useful conclusions are obtained.