Probabilistic Inference of Simulation Parameters via Parallel Differentiable Simulation

Reproducing real world dynamics in simulation is critical for the development of new control and perception methods. This task typically involves the estimation of simulation parameter distributions from observed rollouts through an inverse inference problem characterized by multi-modality and skewed distributions. We address this challenging problem through a novel Bayesian inference approach that approximates a posterior distribution over simulation parameters given real sensor measurements. By extending the commonly used Gaussian likelihood model for trajectories via the multiple-shooting formulation, our gradient-based particle inference algorithm, Stein Variational Gradient Descent, is able to identify highly nonlinear, underactuated systems. We leverage GPU code generation and differentiable simulation to evaluate the likelihood and its gradient for many particles in parallel. Our algorithm infers nonparametric distributions over simulation parameters more accurately than comparable baselines and handles constraints over parameters efficiently through gradient-based optimization. We evaluate estimation performance on several physical experiments. On an underactuated mechanism where a 7-DOF robot arm excites an object with an unknown mass configuration, we demonstrate how the inference technique can identify symmetries between the parameters and provide highly accurate predictions. Website: https://uscresl.github.io/prob-diff-sim