WAITING TO PERSUADE

I analyze a sequential bargaining model in which players are optimistic about their bargaining power (measured as the probability of making offers), but learn as they play the game. I show that there exists a uniquely predetermined settlement date, such that in equilibrium the players always reach an agreement at that date, but never reach one before it. Given any discount rate, if the learning is sufŽciently slow, the players agree immediately. I show that, for any speed of learning, the agreement is delayed arbitrarily long, provided that the players are sufŽciently patient. Therefore, although excessive optimism alone cannot cause delay, it can cause long delays if the players are expected to learn.

[1]  Philip J. Reny,et al.  A Non-cooperative Bargaining Model with Strategically Timed Offers , 1993 .

[2]  Polly S Nichols,et al.  Agreeing to disagree. , 2005, General dentistry.

[3]  József Sákovics,et al.  Delay in bargaining games with complete information , 1990 .

[4]  N. Weiss A Course in Probability , 2005 .

[5]  R. Posner The Behavior of Administrative Agencies , 1972, The Journal of Legal Studies.

[6]  David M. Kreps,et al.  Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations , 1978 .

[7]  Drew Fudenberg,et al.  Learning to Play Bayesian Games , 2001, Games Econ. Behav..

[8]  S. Morris Speculative Investor Behavior and Learning , 1996 .

[9]  Joel Watson,et al.  Conditional Dominance, Rationalizability, and Game Forms , 1997 .

[10]  S. Morris The Common Prior Assumption in Economic Theory , 1995, Economics and Philosophy.

[11]  G. Loewenstein,et al.  Behavioral Law and Economics: Explaining Bargaining Impasse: The Role of Self-serving Biases , 1997 .

[12]  D. Blackwell,et al.  Merging of Opinions with Increasing Information , 1962 .

[13]  D. Freedman On the Asymptotic Behavior of Bayes' Estimates in the Discrete Case , 1963 .

[14]  Antonio Merlo,et al.  A Stochastic Model of Sequential Bargaining with Complete Information and Transferable Utility , 1995 .

[15]  R. Aumann Correlated Equilibrium as an Expression of Bayesian Rationality Author ( s ) , 1987 .

[16]  Lones Smith,et al.  Aspirational Bargaining , 2002 .

[17]  David M. Kreps Notes On The Theory Of Choice , 1988 .

[18]  M. Bazerman,et al.  Divergent Expectations as a Cause of Disagreement in Bargaining: Evidence from a Comparison of Arbitration Schemes." , 1989 .

[19]  Daron Acemoglu,et al.  Evolution of Perceptions and Play , 2001 .

[20]  J. Ferejohn,et al.  Bargaining in Legislatures , 1989, American Political Science Review.

[21]  Pierpaolo Battigalli,et al.  Strong Belief and Forward Induction Reasoning , 2002, J. Econ. Theory.

[22]  J. Harsanyi Games with Incomplete Information Played by “Bayesian” Players Part II. Bayesian Equilibrium Points , 1968 .

[23]  Martin W. Cripps,et al.  Markov bargaining games , 1998 .

[24]  C. Avery,et al.  Option Values and Bargaining Delays , 1994 .

[25]  Faruk Gul A Comment on Aumann's Bayesian View , 1998 .

[26]  A. Mas-Colell,et al.  Microeconomic Theory , 1995 .

[27]  William M. Landes,et al.  An Economic Analysis of the Courts , 1971, The Journal of Law and Economics.

[28]  Benjamin Klein,et al.  The Selection of Disputes for Litigation , 1984, The Journal of Legal Studies.

[29]  M. Bazerman,et al.  The Effects of Framing and Negotiator Overconfidence on Bargaining Behaviors and Outcomes , 1985 .

[30]  Robert B. Wilson,et al.  Bargaining with Private Information , 1993 .

[31]  E. Steen,et al.  Organizational Beliefs and Managerial Vision , 2005 .

[32]  Abhijit Banerjee,et al.  A Simple Model of Voice , 2001 .

[33]  A. Rubinstein Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model , 1982 .

[34]  Muhamet Yildiz Sequential Bargaining Without a Common Prior on the Recognition Process , 2001 .

[35]  P. Douglas,et al.  The Theory of Wages , 1934 .

[36]  Nancy L. Stokey,et al.  Information, Trade, and Common Knowledge , 1982 .

[37]  Pontus Andersson,et al.  Stockholm School of Economics , 2019, The Grants Register 2020.