Does formal system dynamics training improve people's understanding of accumulation?

Research shows widespread misunderstanding of stocks and fl ows, even among highly educated adults. People fail to grasp that any stock rises (falls) when the infl ow exceeds (is less than) the outfl ow. Rather, people often use the correlation heuristic, concluding that a system’s output is positively correlated with its inputs. Although many argue that system dynamics training will help, evidence is scant. This paper reports an experiment with MIT graduate students to assess the impact of an introductory system dynamics course on intuitive understanding of accumulation. Results show large, statistically signifi cant improvements in overall performance and a reduction in the prevalence of the correlation heuristic. Modest exposure to stocks and fl ows improves understanding of accumulation, at least among these highly educated adults. However, a minority still show evidence of correlational reasoning. The discussion considers additional experiments to deepen our knowledge of the training required to develop people’s intuitive understanding of accumulation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Syst. Dyn. Rev. 26, 316‐334 (2010) Supporting information may be found in the online version of this article.

[1]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment , 2002 .

[2]  J. Sterman,et al.  Understanding public complacency about climate change: adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter , 2007 .

[3]  Steffen Bayer,et al.  Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world , 2004 .

[4]  Cleotilde González.  Decision Support for Real-Time, Dynamic Decision-Making Tasks , 2005 .

[5]  B. Brehmer,et al.  Understanding and control of a simple dynamic system , 2003 .

[6]  John D. Sterman,et al.  Bathtub dynamics: initial results of a systems thinking inventory , 2000 .

[7]  Cleotilde Gonzalez,et al.  Understanding the building blocks of dynamic systems , 2007 .

[8]  S. Spencer,et al.  Stereotype Threat and Women's Math Performance , 1999 .

[9]  Erling Moxnes,et al.  Misperceptions of basic dynamics: the case of renewable resource management , 2004 .

[10]  Jac A. M. Vennix,et al.  Effect of system dynamics education on systems thinking inventory task performance , 2005 .

[11]  Don N. Kleinmuntz,et al.  Information processing and misperceptions of the implications of feedback in dynamic decision making , 1993 .

[12]  J. Sterman.  Misperceptions of feedback in dynamic decision making , 1989 .

[13]  John D. Sterman,et al.  Business dynamics : systems thinking and modelling for acomplex world , 2002 .

[14]  J. Sterman,et al.  Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming , 2002 .

[15]  D. Sterman,et al.  Misperceptions of Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Making Experiment , 1989 .

[16]  Daniel Kainz,et al.  Can Students Learn Stock-Flow-Thinking? An Empirical Investigation , 2002 .

[17]  D. Meadows.  The Global Citizen , 1991 .

[18]  Robert E. Wood,et al.  The effects of feedback format on dynamic decision making , 2002 .

[19]  John D. Sterman,et al.  All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist† , 2002 .

[20]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[21]  William G. Cochran,et al.  Experimental Designs, 2nd Edition , 1950 .

[22]  Don N. Kleinmuntz,et al.  Cognitive Heuristics and Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Environment , 1985 .

[23]  K. Holyoak,et al.  Surface and structural similarity in analogical transfer , 1987, Memory & cognition.

[24]  P. Frensch,et al.  Complex problem solving : the European perspective , 1995 .

[25]  James C. Kaufman,et al.  Gender Differences in Mathematics: An Integrative Psychological Approach , 2005 .

[26]  Don N. Kleinmuntz,et al.  Information Displays and Decision Processes , 1993 .

[27]  John D. Sterman,et al.  Thinking about systems: student and teacher conceptions of natural and social systems , 2007 .

[28]  D. Gentner,et al.  Learning and Transfer: A General Role for Analogical Encoding , 2003 .

[29]  John D. Sterman,et al.  System Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World , 2002 .

[30]  Eva Jensen,et al.  Does system dynamics or control theory help you strike a balance , 2008 .

[31]  Cleotilde González,et al.  Why don ’ t well-educated adults understand accumulation ? A challenge to researchers , educators , and citizens , 2008 .

[32]  Stephen E. Fienberg,et al.  W. Edwards Deming , 2001 .

[33]  R. Hogarth.  Insights in Decision Making , 1990 .

[34]  J. Sterman,et al.  Effects of feedback complexity on dynamic decision making , 1995 .

[35]  J. Sterman.  Risk Communication on Climate: Mental Models and Mass Balance , 2008, Science.

[36]  Mary M. Omodei,et al.  The Fire Chief microworld generating program: An illustration of computer-simulated microworlds as an experimental paradigm for studying complex decision-making behavior , 1995 .

[37]  Hans Dieter Kasperidus.  Comparing Systems Thinking Inventory Task Performance in German Classrooms at High School and University Level , 2006 .