Process Models Deserve Process Data: Comment on Brandstatter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig (2006)

Comments on the article by E. Brandstätter, G. Gigerenzer, and R. Hertwig. Resolution of debates in cognition usually comes from the introduction of constraints in the form of new data about either the process or representation. Decision research, in contrast, has relied predominantly on testing models by examining their fit to choices. The authors examine a recently proposed choice strategy, the priority heuristic, which provides a novel account of how people make risky choices. The authors identify a number of properties that the priority heuristic should have as a process model and illustrate how they may be tested. The results, along with prior research, suggest that although the priority heuristic captures some variability in the attention paid to outcomes, it fails to account for major characteristics of the data, particularly the frequent transitions between outcomes and their probabilities. The article concludes with a discussion of the properties that should be captured by process models of risky choice and the role of process data in theory development.

[1]  J. Payne,et al.  Risky choice: An examination of information acquisition behavior , 1978, Memory & cognition.

[2]  J. Townsend,et al.  Decision field theory: a dynamic-cognitive approach to decision making in an uncertain environment. , 1993, Psychological review.

[3]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect Theory : An Analysis of Decision under Risk Author ( s ) : , 2007 .

[4]  David I. Laibson,et al.  Costly Information Acquisition: Experimental Analysis of a Boundedly Rational Model , 2006 .

[5]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Detecting Failures of Backward Induction: Monitoring Information Search in Sequential Bargaining , 2002, J. Econ. Theory.

[6]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Adaptive Strategy Selection in Decision Making. , 1988 .

[7]  John W. Payne,et al.  Task complexity and contingent processing in decision making: An information search and protocol analysis☆ , 1976 .

[8]  H. J. Einhorn,et al.  Linear regression and process-tracing models of judgment. , 1979 .

[9]  P. Slovic,et al.  An analysis-of-variance model for the assessment of configural cue utilization in clinical judgment. , 1968, Psychological bulletin.

[10]  R. Hertwig,et al.  The priority heuristic: making choices without trade-offs. , 2006, Psychological review.

[11]  A. Tversky,et al.  Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty , 1992 .

[12]  Larry D. Rosen,et al.  An eye fixation analysis of choice and judgment with multiattribute stimuli , 1976, Memory & cognition.

[13]  James R. Bettman,et al.  Patterns of Processing in Consumer Information Acquisition , 1976 .

[14]  Miguel A. Costa-Gomes,et al.  Cognition and Behavior in Two-Person Guessing Games: An Experimental Study , 2003 .

[15]  B. Dosher,et al.  Strategies for multiattribute binary choice. , 1983, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[16]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Cognitive processes in preference reversals , 1989 .

[17]  Allen Newell,et al.  Human Problem Solving. , 1973 .

[18]  M. Birnbaum.  Causes of Allais common consequence paradoxes: An experimental dissection ☆ , 2004 .

[19]  Robert L. Slonim,et al.  Combining a Theoretical Prediction with Experimental Evidence , 2002 .

[20]  Gerald L. Lohse,et al.  A Comparison of Two Process Tracing Methods for Choice Tasks , 1996 .

[21]  W. Kintsch,et al.  Memory and cognition , 1977 .

[22]  Miguel A. Costa-Gomes,et al.  Cognition and Behavior in Normal-Form Games: An Experimental Study , 1998 .

[23]  Anthony S. Bryk,et al.  Hierarchical Linear Models: Applications and Data Analysis Methods , 1992 .

[24]  Joshua Klayman,et al.  Analysis of Predecisional Information Search Patterns , 1983 .

[25]  G. Myles.  Journal of Economic Theory: J.-M. Grandmont, 1992, Transformations of the commodity space, behavioural heterogeneity, and the aggregation problem 57, 1-35 , 1993 .

[26]  John W. Payne,et al.  Effort and Accuracy in Choice , 1985 .

[27]  Larry D. Rosen,et al.  An eye fixation analysis of multialternative choice , 1975, Memory & cognition.

[28]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  The adaptive decision maker , 1993 .