Exploitation vs Caution: Risk-sensitive Policies for Offline Learning

Offline model learning for planning is a branch of machine learning that trains agents to perform actions in an unknown environment using a fixed batch of previously collected experiences. The limited size of the data set hinders the estimate of the Value function of the relative Markov Decision Process (MDP), bounding the performance of the obtained policy in the real world. In this context, recent works showed that planning with a discount factor lower than the one used during the evaluation phase yields more performing policies. However, the optimal discount factor is finally chosen by cross-validation. Our aim is to show that looking for a sub-optimal solution of a Bayesian MDP might lead to better performances with respect to the current baselines that work in the offline setting. Hence, we propose Exploitation vs Caution (EvC), an algorithm which automatically selects the policy that solves a Risk-sensitive Bayesian MDP in a set of policies obtained by solving several MDPs characterized by different discount factors and transition dynamics. On one hand, the Bayesian formalism elegantly includes model uncertainty and on another hand the introduction of a risk-sensitive utility function guarantees robustness. We evaluated the proposed approach in different discrete simple environments offering a fair variety of MDP classes. We also compared the obtained results with state-of-the-art offline learning for planning baselines such as MOPO and MOReL. In the tested scenarios EvC is more robust than the said approaches suggesting that sub-optimally solving an Offline Risk-sensitive Bayesian MDP (ORBMDP) could define a sound framework for planning under model uncertainty.