The impact of the Chinese automotive industry: scenarios based on the national environmental goals

Abstract Chinese automotive industry, the largest in the world since 2009, is one of the main drivers for the development of the nation's industrial economy. The annual output value of Chinese automotive industry accounted for >8.7% of China's Growth Domestic Product (GDP) in 2009. This massive development of automobiles, however, introduces environmental challenges. This study used a life cycle approach to assess the direct and indirect environmental impacts at the production and consumption stages of the industry. A four-quadrant matrix was developed to present key findings of overall environmental impacts of the industry, according to its constituent processes, in these two stages. The results suggest that the indirect impacts at the production stage and direct impacts at the consumption stage dominate the total environmental impacts. The rapid development of the automotive industry has indirectly stimulated the development of the steel, plastic, rubber and other raw material industries, which further increases the pressure on the environment. With respect to the potential alternatives in the next five years, a scenario analysis suggested that a controlled growth of the automotive industry is highly desirable to mitigate the increased environmental pressures. Advanced technologies to reduce the demands for materials and pollutant emissions are required at the production stage to diminish the direct and indirect impacts. At the consumption stage, improved new energy vehicle development, lightweight vehicle design, enhanced automobile-washing water reuse technologies and strict automobile emission standard implementations will be helpful to achieve the goals of energy and water saving as well as pollution reductions.