Probabilistic Risk Metrics for Navigating Occluded Intersections

Among traffic accidents in the USA, 23% of fatal and 32% of non-fatal incidents occurred at intersections. For driver assistance systems, intersection navigation remains a difficult problem that is critically important to increasing driver safety. In this letter, we examine how to navigate an unsignalized intersection safely under occlusions and faulty perception. We propose a real-time, probabilistic, risk assessment for parallel autonomy control applications for occluded intersection scenarios. The algorithms are implemented on real hardware and are deployed in a variety of turning and merging topologies. We show phenomena that establish go/no-go decisions, augment acceleration through an intersection and encourage nudging behaviors toward intersections.

[1]  V. R. Rengaraju,et al.  Vehicle-Arrival Characteristics at Urban Uncontrolled Intersections , 1995 .

[2]  Zhe Sun,et al.  Simultaneous estimation of states and parameters in Newell’s simplified kinematic wave model with Eulerian and Lagrangian traffic data , 2017 .

[3]  B. Greenshields,et al.  TRAFFIC PERFORMANCE AT URBAN STREET INTERSECTIONS , 1949 .

[4]  S J Older,et al.  TRAFFIC CONFLICT STUDIES IN THE UNITED KINGDOM , 1977 .

[5]  G. M. Davis The Department of Transportation , 1970 .

[6]  Eun-Ha Choi,et al.  Crash Factors in Intersection-Related Crashes: An On-Scene Perspective , 2010 .

[7]  David R. Ragland,et al.  Gap acceptance for vehicles turning left across on-coming traffic: Implications for Intersection Decision Support design , 2005 .

[8]  Christopher D. Wickens,et al.  A Computational Model of Attention/Situation Awareness , 2002 .

[9]  Mykel J. Kochenderfer,et al.  Pedestrian Collision Avoidance System for Scenarios with Occlusions , 2019, 2019 IEEE Intelligent Vehicles Symposium (IV).

[10]  Werner Brilon,et al.  USEFUL ESTIMATION PROCEDURES FOR CRITIAL GAPS. , 1997 .

[11]  Rakesh Gupta,et al.  Turn prediction at generalized intersections , 2015, 2015 IEEE Intelligent Vehicles Symposium (IV).

[12]  R. C. Coulter,et al.  Implementation of the Pure Pursuit Path Tracking Algorithm , 1992 .

[13]  P A Hancock,et al.  LEFT TURN AND GAP ACCEPTANCE CRASHES. IN: HUMAN FACTORS AND TRAFFIC SAFETY , 2001 .

[14]  Rodney J. Troutbeck,et al.  Estimating the Mean Critical Gap , 2014 .

[15]  Victor Ng-Thow-Hing,et al.  A left-turn driving aid using projected oncoming vehicle paths with augmented reality , 2013, AutomotiveUI.

[16]  Edwin Olson,et al.  MPDM: Multipolicy decision-making in dynamic, uncertain environments for autonomous driving , 2015, 2015 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA).

[17]  John D Lee,et al.  Augmented reality cues to assist older drivers with gap estimation for left-turns. , 2014, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[18]  Luke Fletcher,et al.  The MIT - Cornell Collision and Why It Happened , 2009, The DARPA Urban Challenge.

[19]  Stephen D. Boyles,et al.  Auction-based autonomous intersection management , 2013, 16th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC 2013).

[20]  Brendan Tran Morris,et al.  Looking at Intersections: A Survey of Intersection Monitoring, Behavior and Safety Analysis of Recent Studies , 2017, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[21]  Edward A. Lee,et al.  What Good are Models? , 2018, FACS.

[22]  Jonathan P. How,et al.  Threat assessment design for driver assistance system at intersections , 2010, 13th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[23]  Matthew Johnson-Roberson,et al.  Occlusion-Aware Risk Assessment for Autonomous Driving in Urban Environments , 2018, IEEE Robotics and Automation Letters.

[24]  David Isele,et al.  Navigating Occluded Intersections with Autonomous Vehicles Using Deep Reinforcement Learning , 2018, 2018 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA).

[25]  Gilles Montagne,et al.  Drivers' decision-making when attempting to cross an intersection results from choice between affordances , 2015, Front. Hum. Neurosci..

[26]  P. Hancock,et al.  The Perception of Arrival Time for Different Oncoming Vehicles at an Intersection , 1994 .

[27]  Sebastian Thrun,et al.  Model based vehicle detection and tracking for autonomous urban driving , 2009, Auton. Robots.

[28]  Keiji Kanazawa,et al.  A model for reasoning about persistence and causation , 1989 .

[29]  Jonas Bärgman,et al.  An Invariant May Drive the Decision to Encroach at Unsignalized Intersections , 2017 .

[30]  Christian Laugier,et al.  Evaluating risk at road intersections by detecting conflicting intentions , 2012, 2012 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems.

[31]  R. Troutbeck,et al.  UNSIGNALIZED INTERSECTION THEORY BY , 1997 .

[32]  Sertac Karaman,et al.  Project-based, collaborative, algorithmic robotics for high school students: Programming self-driving race cars at MIT , 2017, 2017 IEEE Integrated STEM Education Conference (ISEC).

[33]  Javier Alonso-Mora,et al.  Parallel autonomy in automated vehicles: Safe motion generation with minimal intervention , 2017, 2017 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA).

[34]  Martin Lauer,et al.  Tackling Occlusions & Limited Sensor Range with Set-based Safety Verification , 2018, 2018 21st International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC).

[35]  Sebastian Thrun,et al.  Towards fully autonomous driving: Systems and algorithms , 2011, 2011 IEEE Intelligent Vehicles Symposium (IV).

[36]  Peter J Cooper,et al.  Turning gap acceptance decision-making: the impact of driver distraction. , 2002, Journal of safety research.