Long-Term Recurrent Predictive Model for Intent Prediction of Pedestrians via Inverse Reinforcement Learning

Recently, the problem of intent and trajectory prediction of pedestrians in urban traffic environments has got some attention from the intelligent transportation research community. One of the main challenges that make this problem even harder is the uncertainty exists in the actions of pedestrians in urban traffic environments, as well as the difficulty in inferring their end goals. In this work, we are proposing a data-driven framework based on Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) and the bidirectional recurrent neural network architecture (B-LSTM) for long-term prediction of pedestrians' trajectories. We evaluated our framework on real-life datasets for agent behavior modeling in traffic environments and it has achieved an overall average displacement error of only 2.93 and 4.12 pixels over 2.0 secs and 3.0 secs ahead prediction horizons respectively. Additionally, we compared our framework against other baseline models based on sequence prediction models only. We have outperformed these models with the lowest margin of average displacement error of more than 5 pixels.

[1]  Silvio Savarese,et al.  Learning Social Etiquette: Human Trajectory Understanding In Crowded Scenes , 2016, ECCV.

[2]  Wendy Ju,et al.  Ghost driver: A field study investigating the interaction between pedestrians and driverless vehicles , 2016, 2016 25th IEEE International Symposium on Robot and Human Interactive Communication (RO-MAN).

[3]  Stefano Soatto,et al.  Intent-aware long-term prediction of pedestrian motion , 2016, 2016 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA).

[4]  Martial Hebert,et al.  Activity Forecasting , 2012, ECCV.

[5]  Yu Zhao,et al.  Applying Deep Bidirectional LSTM and Mixture Density Network for Basketball Trajectory Prediction , 2017, ArXiv.

[6]  Emilio Frazzoli,et al.  Intention-Aware Pedestrian Avoidance , 2012, ISER.

[7]  R. Bellman A Markovian Decision Process , 1957 .

[8]  Quoc V. Le,et al.  Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks , 2014, NIPS.

[9]  Saeid Nahavandi,et al.  Intent prediction of vulnerable road users from motion trajectories using stacked LSTM network , 2017, 2017 IEEE 20th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC).

[10]  C. Bishop Mixture density networks , 1994 .

[11]  C. G. Keller,et al.  Will the Pedestrian Cross? A Study on Pedestrian Path Prediction , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[12]  Fernando A. Mujica,et al.  An Empirical Evaluation of Deep Learning on Highway Driving , 2015, ArXiv.

[13]  Kris M. Kitani,et al.  A Game-Theoretic Approach to Multi-Pedestrian Activity Forecasting , 2016, ArXiv.

[14]  Jürgen Schmidhuber,et al.  Long Short-Term Memory , 1997, Neural Computation.

[15]  Saeid Nahavandi,et al.  Towards trusted autonomous vehicles from vulnerable road users perspective , 2017, 2017 Annual IEEE International Systems Conference (SysCon).

[16]  Julian F. P. Kooij,et al.  Supplemental Material Context-based Pedestrian Path Prediction , 2014 .

[17]  Dariu Gavrila,et al.  Using road topology to improve cyclist path prediction , 2017, 2017 IEEE Intelligent Vehicles Symposium (IV).

[18]  Kuldip K. Paliwal,et al.  Bidirectional recurrent neural networks , 1997, IEEE Trans. Signal Process..

[19]  Julius Ziegler,et al.  Making Bertha Drive—An Autonomous Journey on a Historic Route , 2014, IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Magazine.

[20]  P. Koopman,et al.  A Philosophy for Developing Trust in Self-driving Cars , 2015 .

[21]  Anind K. Dey,et al.  Maximum Entropy Inverse Reinforcement Learning , 2008, AAAI.

[22]  Silvio Savarese,et al.  Social LSTM: Human Trajectory Prediction in Crowded Spaces , 2016, 2016 IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR).

[23]  Nicholas Roy,et al.  Feature-Based Prediction of Trajectories for Socially Compliant Navigation , 2013 .

[24]  Dariu Gavrila,et al.  UvA-DARE ( Digital Academic Repository ) Pedestrian Path Prediction with Recursive Bayesian Filters : A Comparative Study , 2013 .

[25]  Siddhartha S. Srinivasa,et al.  Planning-based prediction for pedestrians , 2009, 2009 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems.

[26]  Eike Rehder,et al.  Goal-Directed Pedestrian Prediction , 2015, 2015 IEEE International Conference on Computer Vision Workshop (ICCVW).

[27]  Roland Siegwart,et al.  A data-driven approach for pedestrian intention estimation , 2016, 2016 IEEE 19th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC).