Multi-attribute Decision-making is Best Characterized by an Attribute-Wise Reinforcement Learning Model

Choice alternatives often consist of multiple attributes that vary in how successfully they predict reward. Some standard theoretical models assert that decision makers evaluate choices either by weighting those attribute optimally in light of previous experience (so-called rational models), or adopting heuristics that use attributes suboptimally but in a manner that yields reasonable performance at minimal cost (e.g., the take-the-best heuristic). However, these models ignore both the possibility that decision makers might learn to associate reward with whole stimuli (a particular combination of attributes) rather than individual attributes and the common finding that decisions can be overly influenced by recent experiences and exhibit cue competition effects. Participants completed a two-alternative choice task where each stimulus consisted of three binary attributes that were predictive of reward, albeit with different degrees of reliability. Their choices revealed that, rather than using only the “best” attribute, they made use of all attributes but in manner that reflected the classic cue competition effect known as overshadowing. The time needed to make decisions increased as the number of relevant attributes increased, suggesting that reward was associated with attributes rather than whole stimuli. Fitting a family of computational models formed by crossing attribute use (optimal vs. only the best), representation (attribute vs. whole stimuli), and recency (biased or not), revealed that models that performed better when they made use of all information, represented attributes, and incorporated recency effects and cue competition. We also discuss the need to incorporate selective attention and hypothesis-testing like processes to account for results with multiple-attribute stimuli.

[1]  David A. Lagnado,et al.  Sub-optimal reasons for rejecting optimality , 2000, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[2]  John P O'Doherty,et al.  Elucidating the underlying components of food valuation in the human orbitofrontal cortex , 2017, Nature Neuroscience.

[3]  A. Tversky,et al.  Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty , 1992 .

[4]  R. Nosofsky,et al.  Rule-plus-exception model of classification learning. , 1994, Psychological review.

[5]  M. Gluck,et al.  Interactive memory systems in the human brain , 2001, Nature.

[6]  M. F. Luce,et al.  Constructive Consumer Choice Processes , 1998 .

[7]  G. Schwarz Estimating the Dimension of a Model , 1978 .

[8]  L. Squire,et al.  Robust habit learning in the absence of awareness and independent of the medial temporal lobe , 2005, Nature.

[9]  J. Kruschke,et al.  ALCOVE: an exemplar-based connectionist model of category learning. , 1992, Psychological review.

[10]  B. Love,et al.  Fast or Frugal, but Not Both: Decision Heuristics Under Time Pressure , 2017, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[11]  J. Kruschke,et al.  A model of probabilistic category learning. , 1999, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[12]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Adaptive Strategy Selection in Decision Making. , 1988 .

[13]  John K. Kruschke,et al.  Cue competition in function learning: Blocking and highlighting , 2001 .

[14]  G. Bower,et al.  From conditioning to category learning: an adaptive network model. , 1988, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[15]  I. Erev,et al.  Small feedback‐based decisions and their limited correspondence to description‐based decisions , 2003 .

[16]  Timothy E. J. Behrens,et al.  Hierarchical competitions subserving multi-attribute choice , 2014, Nature Neuroscience.

[17]  Mel W. Khaw,et al.  Reminders of past choices bias decisions for reward in humans , 2017, Nature Communications.

[18]  K. Norman,et al.  Reinstated episodic context guides sampling-based decisions for reward , 2017, Nature Neuroscience.

[19]  Rick P. Thomas,et al.  Psychological plausibility of the theory of probabilistic mental models and the fast and frugal heuristics. , 2008, Psychological review.

[20]  H. Simon,et al.  Rational choice and the structure of the environment. , 1956, Psychological review.

[21]  J. Gold,et al.  The neural basis of decision making. , 2007, Annual review of neuroscience.

[22]  J. Pearce,et al.  A model for Pavlovian learning: variations in the effectiveness of conditioned but not of unconditioned stimuli. , 1980, Psychological review.

[23]  J. Wagner Interpretation of percent dissolved-time plots derived from in vitro testing of conventional tablets and capsules. , 1969, Journal of pharmaceutical sciences.

[24]  Matthew T. Kaufman,et al.  A category-free neural population supports evolving demands during decision-making , 2014, Nature Neuroscience.

[25]  N. Daw,et al.  Reinforcement Learning and Episodic Memory in Humans and Animals: An Integrative Framework , 2017, Annual review of psychology.

[26]  Lindsay E. Hunter,et al.  Episodic memories predict adaptive value-based decision-making. , 2016, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[27]  P. Dayan,et al.  Cortical substrates for exploratory decisions in humans , 2006, Nature.

[28]  A. Bröder Assessing the empirical validity of the "take-the-best" heuristic as a model of human probabilistic inference. , 2000, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[29]  Daniela Link,et al.  Do People Order Cues by Retrieval Fluency when Making Probabilistic Inferences , 2017 .

[30]  B. Newell,et al.  Empirical tests of a fast-and-frugal heuristic: Not everyone "takes-the-best" , 2003 .

[31]  Jan Drugowitsch Variational Bayesian inference for linear and logistic regression , 2013, 1310.5438.

[32]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  Fast and frugal heuristics: The adaptive toolbox. , 1999 .

[33]  Colin Camerer,et al.  A framework for studying the neurobiology of value-based decision making , 2008, Nature Reviews Neuroscience.

[34]  Y. Niv Reinforcement learning in the brain , 2009 .

[35]  Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos,et al.  Naïve heuristics for paired comparisons: Some results on their relative accuracy , 2006 .

[36]  Marvin M. Chun,et al.  Memory-Guided Attention: Independent Contributions of the Hippocampus and Striatum , 2016, Neuron.

[37]  Thomas L. Griffiths,et al.  A Rational Analysis of Rule-Based Concept Learning , 2008, Cogn. Sci..

[38]  I. Erev,et al.  On adaptation, maximization, and reinforcement learning among cognitive strategies. , 2005, Psychological review.

[39]  A. Glöckner,et al.  Multiple-reason decision making based on automatic processing. , 2008, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[40]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  The adaptive decision maker , 1993 .

[41]  W. Estes The cognitive side of probability learning. , 1976 .

[42]  B. Rehder,et al.  Strategies to intervene on causal systems are adaptively selected , 2015, Cognitive Psychology.

[43]  H. Yin,et al.  The role of the basal ganglia in habit formation , 2006, Nature Reviews Neuroscience.

[44]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  Heuristic decision making. , 2011, Annual review of psychology.

[45]  Kai Li,et al.  Computational approaches to fMRI analysis , 2017, Nature Neuroscience.

[46]  Daeyeol Lee,et al.  Feature-based learning improves adaptability without compromising precision , 2017, Nature Communications.

[47]  Nathaniel J. Blair,et al.  Blocking and backward blocking involve learned inattention , 2000, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

[48]  M. Shadlen,et al.  Decision Making and Sequential Sampling from Memory , 2016, Neuron.

[49]  Robert C. Wilson,et al.  Reinforcement Learning in Multidimensional Environments Relies on Attention Mechanisms , 2015, The Journal of Neuroscience.

[50]  M. G. Pittau,et al.  A weakly informative default prior distribution for logistic and other regression models , 2008, 0901.4011.

[51]  E. Rowland Theory of Games and Economic Behavior , 1946, Nature.

[52]  D. Medin,et al.  SUSTAIN: a network model of category learning. , 2004, Psychological review.

[53]  P. M. Todd,et al.  How good are fast and frugal inference heuristics in case of limited knowledge? , 2000, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[54]  Matthew M. Crane,et al.  Automated Processing of Imaging Data through Multi-tiered Classification of Biological Structures Illustrated Using Caenorhabditis elegans , 2015, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[55]  Mark K. Johansen,et al.  Are there representational shifts during category learning? , 2002, Cognitive Psychology.

[56]  H. Simon,et al.  From substantive to procedural rationality , 1976 .

[57]  Daniel M. Oppenheimer,et al.  Heuristics made easy: an effort-reduction framework. , 2008, Psychological bulletin.

[58]  Yuan Chang Leong,et al.  Dynamic Interaction between Reinforcement Learning and Attention in Multidimensional Environments , 2017, Neuron.

[59]  Blake A. Richards,et al.  Memory Transformation Enhances Reinforcement Learning in Dynamic Environments , 2016, The Journal of Neuroscience.

[60]  H. Simon,et al.  Invariants of human behavior. , 1990, Annual review of psychology.

[61]  N. Daw,et al.  Multiple memory systems as substrates for multiple decision systems , 2015, Neurobiology of Learning and Memory.

[62]  Aaron B. Hoffman,et al.  Thirty-something categorization results explained: selective attention, eyetracking, and models of category learning. , 2005, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[63]  N. Daw,et al.  Integrating memories to guide decisions , 2015, Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences.

[64]  Eduardo F. Morales,et al.  An Introduction to Reinforcement Learning , 2011 .

[65]  Peter Dayan,et al.  A Neural Substrate of Prediction and Reward , 1997, Science.

[66]  B. Newell Re-visions of rationality? , 2005, Trends in Cognitive Sciences.

[67]  P. Glimcher,et al.  The Neurobiology of Decision: Consensus and Controversy , 2009, Neuron.

[68]  I. J. Myung,et al.  Cue Competition Effects: Empirical Tests of Adaptive Network Learning Models , 1993 .

[69]  Fabian Canas,et al.  Integrating reinforcement learning with models of representation learning , 2010 .

[70]  M. Sommer,et al.  Satisficing in split-second decision making is characterized by strategic cue discounting. , 2016, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[71]  P. Glimcher,et al.  Midbrain Dopamine Neurons Encode a Quantitative Reward Prediction Error Signal , 2005, Neuron.

[72]  Karl J. Friston,et al.  Temporal Difference Models and Reward-Related Learning in the Human Brain , 2003, Neuron.

[73]  Michael R. Waldmann,et al.  Predictive and diagnostic learning within causal models: asymmetries in cue competition. , 1992, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[74]  M. Bouton Context, time, and memory retrieval in the interference paradigms of Pavlovian learning. , 1993, Psychological bulletin.

[75]  M. Lee,et al.  Evidence accumulation in decision making: Unifying the “take the best” and the “rational” models , 2004, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

[76]  Sean M. Polyn,et al.  Beyond mind-reading: multi-voxel pattern analysis of fMRI data , 2006, Trends in Cognitive Sciences.

[77]  D. Lagnado,et al.  Insight and strategy in multiple-cue learning. , 2006, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[78]  N. Mackintosh A Theory of Attention: Variations in the Associability of Stimuli with Reinforcement , 1975 .

[79]  P. Dayan,et al.  Model-based influences on humans’ choices and striatal prediction errors , 2011, Neuron.

[80]  Antonio Rangel,et al.  Stimulus Value Signals in Ventromedial PFC Reflect the Integration of Attribute Value Signals Computed in Fusiform Gyrus and Posterior Superior Temporal Gyrus , 2013, The Journal of Neuroscience.

[81]  R. Nosofsky,et al.  A response-time approach to comparing generalized rational and take-the-best models of decision making. , 2007, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[82]  R. Rescorla,et al.  A theory of Pavlovian conditioning : Variations in the effectiveness of reinforcement and nonreinforcement , 1972 .

[83]  Aaron B. Hoffman,et al.  Eyetracking and selective attention in category learning , 2005, Cognitive Psychology.

[84]  L. Kamin Predictability, surprise, attention, and conditioning , 1967 .

[85]  R. Dawes Judgment under uncertainty: The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making , 1979 .

[86]  B. Newell,et al.  Take the best or look at the rest? Factors influencing "one-reason" decision making. , 2003, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[87]  J. Townsend,et al.  Multialternative Decision Field Theory: A Dynamic Connectionist Model of Decision Making , 2001 .

[88]  E A Wasserman,et al.  Pavlovian appetitive contingencies and approach versus withdrawal to conditioned stimuli in pigeons. , 1974, Journal of comparative and physiological psychology.

[89]  Ulrich Hoffrage,et al.  When do people use simple heuristics, and how can we tell? , 1999 .

[90]  Ulrich Hoffrage,et al.  Inferences under time pressure: how opportunity costs affect strategy selection. , 2008, Acta psychologica.

[91]  Nir Vulkan An Economist's Perspective on Probability Matching , 2000 .

[92]  K. Teigen Simple Heuristics That Make Us Impressed , 2001 .

[93]  T. Robbins,et al.  Decision Making, Affect, and Learning: Attention and Performance XXIII , 2011 .

[94]  J. Busemeyer,et al.  A probabilistic, dynamic, and attribute-wise model of intertemporal choice. , 2014, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[95]  Michael N. Shadlen,et al.  Probabilistic reasoning by neurons , 2007, Nature.

[96]  Peter Dayan,et al.  Hippocampal Contributions to Control: The Third Way , 2007, NIPS.

[97]  J. Rieskamp,et al.  SSL: a theory of how people learn to select strategies. , 2006, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[98]  Samuel Gershman,et al.  A Unifying Probabilistic View of Associative Learning , 2015, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[99]  M. Gluck,et al.  How do people solve the "weather prediction" task?: individual variability in strategies for probabilistic category learning. , 2002, Learning & memory.

[100]  R. Dawes,et al.  Linear models in decision making. , 1974 .

[101]  A. Bröder Decision making with the "adaptive toolbox": influence of environmental structure, intelligence, and working memory load. , 2003, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[102]  R. Hertwig,et al.  Decisions from Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in Risky Choice , 2004, Psychological science.

[103]  John W. Payne,et al.  The adaptive decision maker: Name index , 1993 .

[104]  D. Shohamy,et al.  Memory states influence value-based decisions. , 2016, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[105]  G Gigerenzer,et al.  Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality. , 1996, Psychological review.

[106]  John K. Kruschke,et al.  Learning of rules that have high-frequency exceptions: New empirical data and a hybrid connectionist model , 2019, Proceedings of the Sixteenth Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society.

[107]  M. Gluck,et al.  Probabilistic classification learning in amnesia. , 1994, Learning & memory.

[108]  R. Nosofsky,et al.  An exemplar-based random walk model of speeded classification. , 1997, Psychological review.

[109]  F. Vallée-Tourangeau,et al.  Selective associations and causality judgments: Presence of a strong causal factor may reduce judgments of a weaker one. , 1993 .

[110]  N. Chater,et al.  Preference reversal in multiattribute choice. , 2010, Psychological review.

[111]  Magnus Persson,et al.  PROBabilities from EXemplars (PROBEX): a "lazy" algorithm for probabilistic inference from generic knowledge , 2002, Cogn. Sci..