Lying for Strategic Advantage: Rational and Boundedly Rational Misrepresentation of Intentions

Starting from Hendricks and McAfee's (2000) example of the Allies' decision to feint at Calais and attack at Normandy on D-Day, this paper models misrepresentation of intentions to competitors or enemies. Allowing for the possibility of bounded strategic rationality and rational players' responses to it yields a sensible account of lying via costless, noiseless messages. In many cases the model has generically unique pure-strategy sequential equilibria, in which rational players exploit boundedly rational players, but are not themselves fooled. In others, the model has generically essentially unique mixed-strategy sequential equilibria, in which rational players' strategies protect all players from exploitation.

[1]  With Lawrence in Arabia , 1925 .

[2]  E. Rowland Theory of Games and Economic Behavior , 1946, Nature.

[3]  Gordon A. Harrison Cross Channel Attack , 1951 .

[4]  L. Taylor Strategic Interaction , 1972 .

[5]  Donald C. Daniel,et al.  Strategic military deception , 1982 .

[6]  David M. Kreps,et al.  Reputation and imperfect information , 1982 .

[7]  Paul R. Milgrom,et al.  Predation, reputation, and entry deterrence☆ , 1982 .

[8]  Stanley L. Falk Miracle at Midway , 1982 .

[9]  J. Sobel,et al.  STRATEGIC INFORMATION TRANSMISSION , 1982 .

[10]  Comparative statics of mixed-strategy equilibria in noncooperative two-person games , 1984 .

[11]  J. Sobel A Theory of Credibility , 1985 .

[12]  Drew Fudenberg,et al.  The Folk Theorem in Repeated Games with Discounting or with Incomplete Information , 1986 .

[13]  Joseph Farrell Meaning and Credibility in Cheap-Talk Games - eScholarship , 1986 .

[14]  Joseph Farrell Communication, coordination and Nash equilibrium , 1988 .

[15]  R. Gibbons,et al.  Cheap Talk with Two Audiences , 1989 .

[16]  Matthew Rabin,et al.  A Model of Pre-game Communication , 1991 .

[17]  Guy Laroque,et al.  Using Privileged Information to Manipulate Markets: Insiders, Gurus, and Credibility , 1992 .

[18]  P. Reny Backward Induction, Normal Form Perfection and Explicable Equilibria , 1992 .

[19]  Lones Smith,et al.  The Folk Theorem for Repeated Games , 1993 .

[20]  Joseph Farrell Meaning and Credibility in Cheap-Talk Games , 1993 .

[21]  D-Day and the invasion of Normandy , 1994 .

[22]  G. Loury Self-Censorship in Public Discourse , 1994 .

[23]  R. Aumann,et al.  Epistemic Conditions for Nash Equilibrium , 1995 .

[24]  D. Stahl,et al.  On Players' Models of Other Players: Theory and Experimental Evidence , 1995 .

[25]  M. Hauser The Evolution of Communication , 1996 .

[26]  Joel Watson,et al.  Conditional Dominance, Rationalizability, and Game Forms , 1997 .

[27]  R. Selten Features of experimentally observed bounded rationality , 1998 .

[28]  Geoffrey B. Sprinkle,et al.  Experimental evidence on the evolution of meaning of messages in sender-receiver games , 1998 .

[29]  Vincent P. Crawford,et al.  A Survey of Experiments on Communication via Cheap Talk , 1998 .

[30]  Phillip C. Stocken,et al.  An Analysis of Stock Recommendations , 1998 .

[31]  Miguel A. Costa-Gomes,et al.  Cognition and Behavior in Normal-Form Games: An Experimental Study , 1998 .

[32]  Colin Camerer,et al.  Experience‐weighted Attraction Learning in Normal Form Games , 1999 .

[33]  Colin Camerer,et al.  Sophisticated EWA Learning and Strategic Teaching in Repeated Games , 2000 .

[34]  Andreas Blume,et al.  Evolution of Communication with Partial Common Interest , 2001, Games Econ. Behav..

[35]  J. Conlisk Costly Predation and the Distribution of Competence , 2001 .

[36]  Teck-Hua Ho,et al.  Sophisticated Experience-Weighted Attraction Learning and Strategic Teaching in Repeated Games , 2002, J. Econ. Theory.

[37]  Miguel Costa-Gomes,et al.  A Suggested Interpretation of Some Experimental Results on Preplay Communication , 2002, J. Econ. Theory.

[38]  Miguel A. Costa-Gomes,et al.  Cognition and Behavior in Two-Person Guessing Games: An Experimental Study , 2003 .

[39]  Rajiv Sethi,et al.  Evolutionary Stability in a Reputational Model of Bargaining , 2001, Games Econ. Behav..

[40]  Colin Camerer,et al.  A Cognitive Hierarchy Model of Games , 2004 .

[41]  Kenneth Hendricks,et al.  Feints , 2004 .

[42]  J. Morgan,et al.  Cheap Talk , 2005 .